The impact of two historical suspensions on Bitcoin

October 2013
Duration: 16 days
Price fluctuation:~$132
+14% (to ~$151)
Background: After the halt, it continued to rise, reaching ~$1,100 (+700%) by the end of the year.
In the early stages of the Bitcoin bull market, demand is strong; the standstill is seen as a catalyst for distrust in the US dollar, driving inflows into alternative assets.

Date: December 2018 - January 2019
Duration: 35 days (the longest in history)
Price fluctuation: ~$3,802
-6% (to ~$3,575); some data indicates -10%
Background: In a bear market for cryptocurrencies, tightening liquidity amplifies negative impacts; delays in federal workers' wages exacerbate risk aversion.

Short-term volatility: Stagnation usually triggers a price swing of 5%-15%. In 2013, it was positive (+14%), as Bitcoin was at the end of a bull market; in 2018, it was negative (-6% to -10%), compounded by the macro pressures of the crypto winter.

Long-term positive: Historical data shows that Bitcoin averages an increase of over 20% 3-6 months after a halt.

Reasons include: strengthening the decentralized advantages of Bitcoin ("government shutdowns, BTC never shuts down"), and institutional investors see it as a hedge against fiscal chaos. During the "fake shutdown" panic periods in 2021 and 2023, Bitcoin also rose from $27K to $34K.

The US government is currently facing a shutdown, and the Bitcoin price is around $114K, having dropped 3%-5% due to panic. I believe the current market resembles 2013 (increased demand, strong seasonality in Q4) rather than the bear market of 2018, which may lead to a short-term dip to $100K-$108K, but a rebound in the medium to long term.
Additional risks: Regulatory bills (such as the Crypto Market Structure Act) may be delayed.

Summary: The U.S. government shutdown may cause short-term fluctuations; it could be a buying opportunity at lows. The government may close, but BTC never shuts down. The last wave of the Bitcoin bull run might be catalyzed by the U.S. government shutdown!