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Led by SOL and LTC, the fate ruling of 16 altcoin ETFs in October and the market impact overview.
In October 2025, the cryptocurrency market will face an unprecedented regulatory test. The SEC is about to make a final decision on applications for at least 16 spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), involving a range of tokens including SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, ADA, and HBAR, far exceeding the previous focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Given that the approval of BTC and ETH spot ETFs successfully drove capital inflow and price increases, will altcoin ETFs collectively receive approval this time, sparking a new wave of altcoin frenzy?
Unlike the SEC's previous style of dragging its feet on cryptocurrency applications, this round of approval processes has noticeably accelerated. The SEC has withdrawn several delay notices and shortened the review period to less than 75 days. At the end of July this year, the SEC approved a new universal listing standard aimed at simplifying the ETF listing process, which is expected to take effect in October 2025. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett disclosed that the SEC has requested the issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings, as these filings are no longer necessary after the approval of the universal listing standard. The new standard officially allows for the creation and redemption of physical assets, meaning authorized participants can exchange ETP shares for actual cryptocurrency assets rather than cash. The new standard requires that cryptocurrency assets must be listed on major exchange futures for at least six months to ensure sufficient liquidity and market depth, avoiding market manipulation.
The ultimate ruling will be dispersed throughout October, and the SEC must give a clear Yes or No decision on the market. The approval or disapproval of Litecoin and SOL, which will be ruled on first, will greatly influence the market's subsequent expectations. Litecoin founder Charlie Lee recently stated in an interview that he expects the spot LTC ETF to be launched soon. He emphasized that the listing standards for the general crypto ETF recently approved by the SEC are key factors driving this, and that LTC meets all the conditions for rapid approval due to its maturity, non-security nature, and being one of the 10 assets that meet the standards. Currently, the market is betting, with the probability of the Litecoin spot ETF being approved this year soaring to 93% on Polymarket.
Regarding the situation of the SOL spot ETF, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is exceptionally optimistic. He stated: "To be honest, the success rate for the approval of the SOL spot ETF is now close to 100%. The general listing standards have rendered the 19 b-4 filings and their timelines meaningless; now only the S-1 form-related matters remain." As the last cryptocurrency waiting for a decision at the end of October, ADA's market betting on its ETF approval probability has also risen to 93% on Polymarket.
Previous predictions have suggested that the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs will provide traditional investors with more exposure to crypto investments, potentially triggering a new wave of altcoin seasons or rebounds. ETF analyst James Seyffart holds a different view on the traditional patterns of altcoin seasons. He points out that the current altcoin market is driven by digital asset financial companies rather than the price increases of traditional tokens. Institutional funds prefer to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies through regulated products rather than holding tokens directly. They are more inclined to choose multi-cryptocurrency portfolio products rather than single altcoin ETFs. This structural shift may permanently change the rising patterns of altcoins, with institutional funds possibly flowing more into comprehensive or index-based ETFs rather than single-coin spot ETFs.
In early October, the SEC's decision on cryptocurrencies like LTC and SOL will undoubtedly become a key indicator for the crypto market. Regardless of whether the final decision is Yes or No, it will conclude the market's anticipation for spot ETFs on altcoins that has lasted for months. If approved with high probability as the market bets, the opening of traditional financial channels to altcoins will inevitably have profound effects, but investors should also be aware of new changes brought by the structural preferences of institutional funds.