· Focus on the key watershed: $4,200 - $4,250 is the most important support area currently. If the price effectively falls below this area (especially if the hourly or daily closing price breaks below), the risk of further dipping to $4,000 or even $3,800 will significantly increase. Conversely, if the price can break through the $4,536 - $4,600 resistance zone with higher trade volumes, it may open up a new round of upward space.

· Pay attention to market sentiment and capital flow: Recent data shows that Ethereum has seen a net outflow from exchanges, which may indicate that large holders are accumulating chips and have reduced direct selling pressure in the market. However, it is also important to monitor the inflow/outflow of funds in Ethereum ETFs, as this reflects the short-term sentiment of institutional investors.
· Impact of the macro environment: Factors such as the performance of the US stock market and the strength of the US dollar index (DXY) also affect the overall market's risk appetite. For example, although the Federal Reserve has recently made moves to cut interest rates, Ethereum ETFs still recorded net outflows, indicating that market sentiment has not completely shifted to optimism.
· Strict risk control: Whether long or short, it is essential to set reasonable stop-losses. Position management is the first rule of survival, and it is crucial to avoid heavy or full positions.