Interest rate cuts are in effect, coin prices are linked: how will the market move forward?

On Thursday, September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, resuming the rate-cutting pace that had been paused since December of last year. New Federal Reserve Governor Milan cast a dissenting vote, supporting a 50 basis point cut.
The dot plot shows that among the 19 officials, 9 expect two rate cuts in 2025, two expect one rate cut, and six expect no further cuts. Additionally, one official believes there will be no need for a cut this year, while another thinks there should be a substantial cut to 2.75-3%. 1. The core of this rate cut: preventive easing, not aggressive monetary expansion, due to the cooling of the U.S. labor market (August job stagnation and a 4.3% unemployment rate). The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which is considered a "risk management" rate cut. The dot plot indicates there is still 50 basis points of rate cut space in 2025 (with an 87.5% probability of a cut in October), suggesting moderate easing in the medium to long term, but the neutral rate remains unchanged due to inflation (core PCE at 2.9%), which is still above target. 2. Linked to coin prices: The logic of risk assets continues under the current environment, resembling the preventive rate cuts of 1995 and 2019, which is favorable for risk assets. Previous rate cut expectations have driven Bitcoin and others to new highs, and the low-rate environment reduces holding costs, combined with future rate cut expectations, providing short-term support. However, attention should be paid to the volatility of "buying expectations and selling facts"; Powell's hawkish statements have previously led to declines in coin prices. 3. Market outlook: Watch the policy rhythm and economic data. The Federal Reserve's "gradual approach" to control expectations; if there is a rate cut in October as expected, it may further boost coin prices; if inflation persists and rate cuts stall, it could trigger a pullback. Historical experience shows that during preventive rate cut cycles, risk assets tend to gain growth momentum, and coin prices are likely to fluctuate upward with the easing rhythm.