The global market is holding its breath for the Fed's interest rate decision. A rate cut is basically a done deal, but whether it will be a reduction of 25 basis points or 50 basis points has the market and analysts in a heated debate.

Data from the futures market shows that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 95.9%, which is the mainstream expectation. Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs also hold this view, believing that the Fed will take a cautious and gradual approach to avoid excessive stimulus while inflation has not yet been fully controlled.
But there are also many "radicals" who believe that a 25 basis point cut is too conservative. Société Générale and Standard Chartered have publicly predicted a 50 basis point cut, arguing that the Fed's policy has been "overly tight" for too long, and now there are cracks appearing in the labor market that require stronger action. Even the hawkish former St. Louis Fed President Bullard has stated that a cumulative 75 basis point cut by the end of the year is "reasonable."
The core of this debate is how the Fed can strike a balance between controlling inflation and stabilizing employment. The latest number of unemployment claims has surged to a four-year high, indicating that there are indeed issues in the job market. However, inflation data still shows stickiness, and a hasty large rate cut could reignite inflation.
This decision has a huge impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the rate decreases by 25 basis points and Powell's speech is hawkish, the market may be disappointed and pull back. If there is an unexpected decrease of 50 basis points, it could temporarily stimulate a surge in risk assets, but it may also raise concerns about the economy, leading to a flow of funds into safe-haven assets.