#ETH 💡Excellent Navigator Talks Trading— #ETH 2025.09.16

Intraday Analysis
1️⃣ Structure Interpretation
Due to the break of the 4250 level, the current space is completely opened up. Today, ETH is testing a larger range between 4,350 and 4,700, with short-term support at 4,450-4,500 and resistance at 4,670-4,690. Overall, the short-term trend is bullish, but caution is needed for intraday profit-taking; if ETF inflows continue with volume, breaking through the upper resistance will be easier.

2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamics
ETF Flows: This week, ETH-related spot ETFs continued to see net inflows (with hundreds of millions of dollars flowing in during the reporting period, mainly from Fidelity and other products), indicating strong institutional demand. Reports showed significant net inflows of ETH-related funds during the period from 9/8 to 9/12.

Whales/On-chain: On-chain data shows that some large addresses are still active, with reports mentioning several large ETH transfer events (it is necessary to pay attention to whether they enter exchanges and are executed to judge whether they create selling pressure). Overall, the funding situation is relatively more inclined towards institutional buying compared to BTC, but short-term volatility remains high.

3️⃣ Day trading strategy
Bullish
Condition: A stop-loss reversal or significant increase in trading volume occurs near 4,450-4,500.
Stop loss: 4450 (if breached, exit immediately).
Target: 4,670 → 4,690.

Short (when the upper side is rejected)
Condition: Reach the 4,670 → 4,690 resistance zone with low volume or show an upper shadow/engulfing.
Stop loss: 4,690 (if broken, exit immediately).
Target level: around 4500, with maximum support seen around 4400.

4️⃣ Risk Warning
ETH saw strong ETF inflows this week, but if there is a situation of "large on-chain transfers to exchanges being sold off", the short-term pullback risk will increase sharply; it is essential to closely monitor the movements of large on-chain addresses and exchange transactions.


[For reference only, not as investment advice]