BTC trend analysis! August 28

The multi-period signals for BTC are now very clear: the medium to long-term trend leans towards "cautiously bearish," while there is short-term demand for a rebound; however, the space for the rebound is limited, making it more suitable to "look for short positions during the rebound." In operation, it is crucial to closely monitor the 15-day line's top divergence signals, the 2-day line's rebound rhythm, and key levels such as around 114208 USD (resistance) and around 105700 USD (support), while also adjusting strategies in conjunction with market sentiment and capital flow.

The 15-day moving average serves as a key period for judging the mid-term trend, and there are clear signs of a "top divergence" — the BTC price has failed to break through the previous high and has been oscillating at a high level, while the corresponding technical indicators (such as RSI and MACD) are showing a gradual decline. This phenomenon of "price and indicators being out of sync" is essentially a signal of the weakening bullish momentum, indicating insufficient upward momentum in the mid-term, which is also the core support for the current "cautiously bearish" viewpoint.
The top divergence of the 15-day line is not an instruction to "short immediately," but a reminder that "blindly chasing long positions is not advisable": once the subsequent price breaks below the support of the 15-day line, or the indicators further decline, the bearish market may accelerate.

2-day line: The rebound is a "bearish accumulation of strength", not a trend reversal.
If we zoom in to the 2-day line level, the current BTC is in the "final rebound" phase. From the trend, the strength of this rebound is clearly weaker than before: the trading volume has not effectively increased, the momentum to break through key resistance levels is insufficient, and it appears more like the bulls are "struggling to survive" rather than the beginning of a trend reversal.

Conclusion:
The suggested operation for opening a short position is near the first resistance level at 113365, and the second position is near 114208.
Keep the long position around the level of 108100 unchanged near August 25, with a minimum allowable (support) around 105700.