August 22 Market Daily Report

Core theme: Jackson Hole annual meeting sets the tone for September interest rate cut expectations, tonight marks a key turning point in the market.

1. Core Event: Macro Policy Direction at 10 PM Tonight

- Event: The Jackson Hole annual conference is held, and Powell will speak at 10 o'clock.
- Core content of the speech: Focus on interest rate cuts, policy review, inflation concerns, labor market, and political pressure.
- Key impact: Directly related to the probability of a rate cut in September (over 90% last week, down to 71% this week), which will indirectly determine the overall market trend from late August to early September.

2. Market Status: Significant Diversification of Multiple Varieties

1. Bitcoin (Big Pancake)

- Recent performance: Affected by the outflow of ETF funds, it has corrected by 10% since the 14th. This level of correction is considered healthy in a bull market, accompanied by turnover between listed companies and institutions.
- Key points: Pay attention to the resistance level at 115,000 points (if it stabilizes, look for the strong resistance at 118,000 points); focus on the support level at the psychological barrier of 110,000 points.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

- Recent performance: Ethereum ETF ended a four-day streak of net outflows, with a net inflow of 280 million today, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has risen, and the overall trend is good.
- Key levels: Pay attention to the resistance level at 4400 points (if stabilized, can challenge 4550 points or even the previous high of 4800 points); support level to watch is the range of 4150-4050 points.

3. Special Market Signals

Yesterday, the "7-year Bitcoin ancient whale" worth 235 million completed a swap to Ethereum, reflecting the market's shift of focus towards Ethereum since June (combined with expectations of a staking ETF and continuous institutional buying), but the long-term consensus on Bitcoin remains the strongest.

3. Operational Suggestions and Market Outlook

1. Short-term trading discipline: Before and after Powell's speech at 10 PM tonight, high leverage trading is strictly prohibited; prioritize holding spot.
2. Market Prediction: If Powell clarifies the interest rate cut pace in September, the market will likely rebound; long-term spot players need not worry, as institutions and listed companies are still continuously accumulating coins.
3. Layout Direction: Follow the logic of "the strong will always prevail", focusing on varieties with clear logic (such as ETF expectations, institutional reserves) and signals of capital inflow (such as Ethereum, strong altcoins), while avoiding obscure altcoins that lack capital attention.