Ethereum shows signs of a bullish reversal against BTC, but there is an increase in sell wall pressure = CryptoQuant analysis

## Increasing selling pressure as ATH approaches

According to the weekly report from on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant on the 14th, as the price of Ethereum (ETH) reached $4,743, marking the highest level since November 2021, the ETH/BTC ratio, which represents the relative price of ETH against Bitcoin (BTC), has surpassed the 365-day moving average, indicating that historically, ETH has entered a bullish cycle against BTC.

The trend of investor positioning shifting towards ETH has become evident. The ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio has increased from 0.05 three months ago to the current 0.15, with ETH purchases through ETFs skyrocketing at a pace that exceeds BTC. At the same time, the BTC comparison ratio of ETH positions in the perpetual futures market has surged from 0.57 to 0.76.

The outperformance of ETH is linked to an increase in spot trading volume. Last week, the ETH spot trading volume to BTC ratio reached 1.66, marking the highest level since June 2017. ETH’s spot trading volume has exceeded BTC for four consecutive weeks, with a recent difference of $24 billion to $14 billion, a gap of $10 billion.

On the other hand, warning signals regarding the continued outperformance of ETH are beginning to emerge. The daily inflow of ETH to exchanges has increased, reaching levels higher than BTC. This suggests that holders may be preparing to take profits. Analysis director Julio Moreno commented, “There isn’t as much new selling pressure on BTC, but ETH inflows are increasing to a higher level per hour.”

The analysis of the inflow ratio of the ETH/BTC exchange confirms that ETH has shifted from a low selling pressure environment in May to a currently higher selling pressure environment. This phenomenon is typically seen as a signal of a temporary halt in ETH prices. The situation highlights the active movements of profit-taking by market participants.

The ETH/BTC MVRV ratio has risen from 0.4 in May to the current 0.8. This indicator suggests that ETH is gradually moving out of the undervalued state against BTC. Historical data indicates that when it exceeds 0.9, ETH is considered to be in an overvalued state against BTC. 【The MVRV ratio is an important indicator used to determine whether the current price is overvalued or undervalued and is widely used to predict market turning points】

The current data suggests that while ETH may continue to outperform, it also shows signs of increasing selling pressure. The relative value of ETH is approaching a historically overvalued level, raising the risk of facing headwinds during changes in market sentiment.

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