Settlement using stablecoins is expected to exceed approximately 148 trillion yen annually by the end of 2030: Market maker Keyrock | CoinDesk JAPAN

• According to the report by Keyrock and Bitso, the settlement volume using stablecoins could exceed $1 trillion annually by the end of 2030.
• According to the same report, if the regulatory and liquidity conditions continue to improve, on-chain FX and cross-border Settlement are seen as key areas that will bring disruption.
• The supply of stablecoins has reached 10% of the M2 money supply in the United States, which could also influence monetary policy, the report pointed out.

According to a joint report announced on August 14 by the cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock and the Latin American cryptocurrency exchange Bitso, the settlement volume using stablecoins is projected to exceed $1 trillion (approximately ¥148 trillion, based on an exchange rate of ¥148 to $1) by the end of 2030.

According to the report, this growth will be driven by the adoption of institutional investors in business-to-business (B2B), peer-to-peer (P2P), and card settlement systems. These sectors are already showing signs of rapid adoption.

The report emphasized the reasons why stablecoins are gaining popularity in the financial sector. This is because they can outperform traditional settlement methods in both speed and cost.

The report stated that sending $200 through a bank could incur fees equivalent to as much as 13%, and the Settlement could take several days, while stablecoins can complete transactions in seconds for just a fraction of that cost.

According to the report, foreign exchange (FX) Settlement could be the largest untapped opportunity. The FX market, which is worth $7.5 trillion a day, is still mostly settled on a T+2 basis (two business days after the trade date) through correspondent banks.

On the other hand, on-chain FX using stablecoins has the potential to enable almost instantaneous Settlement and lower counterparty risk through atomic swaps, the report suggested.

Such efficiency could also transform cross-border Settlement. With clearer regulations and increased liquidity and interoperability, stablecoins could handle up to 12% of all cross-border payment flows by the end of 2030.

The trading volume of stablecoins (in orange) and the global cross-border remittance volume (Visa, McKinsey, Keyrock) Considering these opportunities, the report predicts that in the coming years, all major fintech companies will eventually integrate stablecoin infrastructure, just as Software as a Service (SaaS) tools have become ubiquitous.

This may mean that wallets and settlement platforms move value on-chain, allowing the finance department to deploy and hold stablecoins to earn yields, and enabling merchants to settle instantly in multiple currencies.

The rapid growth of stablecoins reaching a market capitalization of $260 billion could have spillover effects on monetary policy.

In a bullish scenario, the supply of stablecoins could reach 10% of the current 1% of the US M2 money supply, equivalent to about a quarter of the US Treasury market, potentially influencing how the Federal Reserve manages short-term interest rates.