Comprehensive conclusion on ETH technical structure, on-chain data, and market sentiment:

Direction: Long. Core logic and basis: After the price stabilized above $4200, it continued to rise, with the daily EMA in a bullish arrangement (3789 > 3594) supporting the medium-term trend; strong institutional capital (ETF net inflow of $726.6 million in a single day) provides buy support. Technical indicators are biased towards strength: MACD histogram remains positive (+36.83), indicating that upward momentum has not waned. If it breaks through 4350 with volume, it may trigger short covering (liquidation price $4383). On-chain fundamentals strengthened: Daily trading volume reached a historical high of 1.74 million transactions, staking participation increased, and expectations for Pectra upgrades enhanced long-term confidence.
Direction: Short. Core logic and basis; Overbought correction risk: RSI (73.76) entering the overbought zone, indicator 1.015 (price above the upper Bollinger Band), short-term technical correction pressure increasing: overall market leverage ratio (ELR 0.68) approaching historical highs, net inflow into exchanges indicating local selling pressure, if it breaks below 4200 it may trigger long liquidation. Strong resistance suppression: 4350-4400 is a psychological + technical strong pressure zone, August 12 high of 4349.8 with a long upper shadow shows resistance is effective.
Balance Point: $4298 is in the breakout critical zone; if it holds, it will challenge the targets of 4450-4550. If it breaks down, it will retest the support at 3980-4020.
Operation suggestion: Break through previous lows, buy high and sell low, strictly adhere to risk control.
Strategy 1: Steady Investor - Wait for a pullback or breakout to go long Conditions:
Pull back to 4200-4250 ** light long (≤5% position), stop loss at 4150 (break below dynamic support), target 4350→4550 (profit-loss ratio 4:1)
If it breaks through 4350 with volume and holds, go long (≤3% position), target 4550 (short liquidation dense area)
Short selling conditions:
The rebound to 4350-4400 is stagnating (15-minute RSI > 70 + volume shrinking), open a short position (≤ 4% of position), stop loss at 4450, target 4200 → 3980.
Strategy 2: Aggressive current price 4298 swing trading
Direction: Long → Entry point 4280 → Stop loss point 4240 → Target 4350 → Position 5% → Basis: Institutional buying support + ETH/BTC exchange rate enhancement.
Direction: Short → Entry point 4320 → Stop loss point 4360 → Target 4250 → Position 5% → Basis: RSI overbought + whale short position ambush (128 million USD)
All points fluctuate up and down by 5 points, as I issued them in integer positions. For detailed data, please join the little family of Cat Shark. #TOKEN OF LOVE 重磅回归 #比特币市值超越亚马逊 #晒出我的Alpha积分 #ETH #BTC