ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-minute strategy analysis (based on data from August 11, 2025, 06:45)

Core logic: shrinking volume and stagnation + extreme overbought conditions, focus on short positions.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 4230.07 (drop -0.10%), amplitude 0.27% (4224.12-4235.41), 4235 constitutes strong resistance.
Support: 4224.12 (intraday low), 4215 (previous low platform); Resistance: 4235.41 (previous high), 4240 (trend line).
Volume exhaustion: 12,325 (<46% of the 5-day average volume of 26,875), upward momentum is exhausted.
Indicator Risk:
KDJ Extreme Overbought: J value 110.12 (>100 severely overbought), K/D values are high and flat, the probability of a dead cross pullback >80%.
MACD Divergence: Red bar (0.88) is narrowing but the price has not broken the high, bearish momentum is accumulating.
RSI Divergence: RSI1(59.01) and RSI3(52.46) show divergence, indicating insufficient bullish consistency.
Low-risk strategy: precise high short at resistance level
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):
The price rebounded to the 4233-4235 range (previous high resistance) without significant volume (VOLUME<15,000).
Target: 4224 → 4215 (1.5 times amplitude).
Stop loss: 4239 (breakthrough previous high +0.1%).
Holding time: ≤15 minutes, take profit when earnings reach 10 USD.
Long Position Emergency Conditions:
A volume breakout at 4240 (VOLUME > 20,000) and a MACD golden cross, chase the long position to 4250.
Or it may quickly drop to stabilize at 4215-4218 (with a long lower shadow on the 15-minute chart), with a short-term target of 4230.
Stop loss: 4210 (breaks key support level).
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating Window: 07:00-08:00 (Asia early session liquidity recovery period).
Position Management: ≤2% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥4:1 (stop loss $4, take profit $16).
Key Discipline:
Abandon the trade if the 4233 resistance is not reached!
Profit reaches $8, initiate trailing stop loss to secure capital.
Strategic Advantage: KDJ extreme overbought + volume-price divergence resonance, with odds as high as 1:4; strict pressure level entry risk control is clear.
Risk warning: If it does not rebound to 4233 before 08:00, or if the volume continues to be <10,000, abandon the operation.
Action Summary:
① Preferred short position: short at 4234 with light leverage, stop loss at 4239, target 4224→4215.
② Alternative Long Position: Breakout at 4240 to chase long up to 4250, or stabilize at 4217 for a short long up to 4230, with strict stop-loss.
(Note: The chart marked "Buy" signal contradicts the overbought indicator; the technical indicators prevail; if the actual price > 4240, the strategy is invalid.)