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1. The impact of the Fed's interest rate cut on the US stock market**
- **Short-term Fluctuations vs. Long-term Trends**
- **Early Stage of Rate Cuts**: The market may decline due to concerns about an economic recession (such as recent weak non-farm payroll data), but expectations for liquidity easing might support the stock market.
- **Historical Patterns**: In past interest rate cut cycles, the US stock market often falls before rising, especially technology stocks and small-cap stocks may benefit.
- **Current Market Expectations**: The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to **80%-94%**. If the rate cut materializes, it may alleviate market panic and drive a rebound in U.S. stocks.