ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-minute strategy analysis (based on data from August 7, 2025, 06:00)

Core logic: High position with shrinking volume and stagnation, MACD death cross indicates a high short opportunity.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 3675.79 (up 0.20%), with a fluctuation of 0.43% (3664.16-3679.92), and a long upper shadow confirming strong resistance at 3679.
Support: 3664.16 (intraday low), 3650 (psychological level); Resistance: 3679.92 (previous high), 3685 (trendline resistance).
Indicator signal:
MACD Death Cross Confirmation: DIF(7.96) crosses below DEA(10.66), green bars(-5.43) expand, bearish momentum strengthens.
Volume-Price Divergence: 27,001 trading volume < 5-day average volume 29,671, price increase not supported by volume.
KDJ/RSI Contradiction: The J value of KDJ (73.11) is overbought, but the RSI (56.96/57.50) is neutral, suggesting insufficient upward momentum.
Low-risk strategy: Focus on high-pressure short positions.
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):
The price rebounded to the range of 3677-3680 (below the previous high) without significant volume (VOLUME<30,000).
Target: 3668 (Fibonacci 38.2%) → 3660 (1x amplitude).
Stop loss: 3685 (breakthrough previous high +0.15%).
Bullish emergency conditions:
A volume breakout above 3685 (VOLUME>35,000) and MACD turning positive, chase the long position to 3700.
Or it may sharply drop to stabilize at 3655-3660 (15 minutes closing with a long lower shadow), with a short-term target of 3675.
Stop loss: 3650 (breaks key support level).
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 06:15-07:30 (Asian early session liquidity recovery period).
Holding time: ≤25 minutes, take profit at $12-15 to secure 50%.
Position Management: ≤3% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥3:1 (Stop loss $5, Take profit $15).
Strategic advantages: Use MACD death cross + volume-price divergence to enhance winning rate; enter at absolute resistance levels, with controllable risk.
Risk Warning: If the pressure of 3677 is not reached before 07:30, abandon the trade to avoid chasing shorts.
Action Summary:
① Preferred short position: Short at 3678 with light leverage, stop loss at 3685, target 3668→3660.
② Alternative Long: Break through 3685 and chase long to 3700, or stabilize at 3660 and take a short long to 3675, with strict stop loss.
(Note: Currently, the KDJ overbought condition and the MACD death cross form contradictory signals, caution is needed for price fluctuations) #Gate ETH 挖矿年化收益 5% #晒出我的Alpha积分 #加密IPO热潮 ❤️❤️❤️❤️