Conclusion and Probability Prediction ( update )

The analysis conclusion has shifted from "high probability bearish" to "the downtrend is currently in progress." The previously predicted downtrend has been initiated, and all indicators show that bearish strength is continuously increasing.
The probability forecast for the price trend in the next 3 hours (approximately until today at 14:30) is as follows:
* High probability (85%): Accelerated decline
The price will continue its current downward trend with almost no decent resistance. The next and most significant target level is the previous low range of 112,000 - 111,900. Given the current momentum, there is a very high possibility of reaching this range within the next 3 hours.
* Medium probability (15%): Continued decline after a brief consolidation.
The price may encounter extremely brief support at a certain integer level (such as 113,000) during its downward trend, forming a slight horizontal consolidation, but after the adjustment is complete, it will continue to fall.
* Low probability ( can be ignored ): trend reversal
In the current situation where all indicators resonate in a bearish manner, the possibility of a V-shaped price reversal is negligible.