Price development trends and probabilities for the next 3 hours

Based on the above analysis, we can make the following prediction for the market in the next 3 hours:
* High probability event ( about 65% ): fluctuating downward, retesting previous lows
* The most likely price trend is to continue the current downward momentum, re-testing and possibly slightly breaking below the previous low support level of 111,865.6. Bears have regained an advantage in technical indicators, and market sentiment is leaning towards pessimism.
* Medium probability event ( about 30% ): gaining support near the support level, entering a narrow range fluctuation
* The price found buying support again after touching the 111,865.6 - 112,200 area, thus halting the decline and entering a very narrow consolidation phase centered around 112,000. However, this is just a continuation of the downtrend, not a reversal.
* Low probability event ( about 5% ): volume rebound, breaking through the upper resistance
* In the next 3 hours, unless there is a sudden major positive news stimulus accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume, it will be difficult for the price to reverse the downward trend and directly break through the strong resistance zone at 114,500. Currently, all technical indicators do not support this trend.
Operation Suggestions:
Short-term operations should mainly focus on shorting on rallies or maintaining a wait-and-see approach. Pay close attention to whether the support at 111,865.6 will be effectively broken. Once broken, the downside space will further open up. Before the price can stabilize above 114,500 with significant volume, it is not advisable to blindly catch falling knives.