Jin10 Data August 4 - US import data for May shows that the actual tariff rate is 8.3%, well below the Morgan Stanley Benchmark estimate of 10% to 15%, but it is anticipated that June and July will approach the estimated values. Shipping delays, higher-than-expected import volumes from Mexico and Canada under the USMCA agreement, as well as a significant drop in import volumes from emerging markets, are the main reasons why the actual tariffs are lower than expected. With June and July data potentially indicating an increase in effective tariff rates, the transmission effects on US inflation will become more apparent.

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