ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 15-Minute Strategy Analysis (Based on Data from August 2, 2025, 04:30)

Core Logic: Oversold area with reduced volume oscillation, bidirectional breakout and rebound.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 3521.78 (almost flat), with a range of 0.59% (3508.17-3520.00), 3508 forming a double bottom support.
Support: 3508.17 (intraday low), 3500 (psychological level + bullish zone); Resistance: 3520.00 (intraday high), 3530 (moving average resistance).
Chart signal: Continuous "buy" signals appear near 3500, indicating clear intentions of institutional support.
Indicator Signal:
KDJ Oversold Rebound: K value (23.90) crosses above D value (19.13), J value (33.44) exits the oversold zone, short bullish momentum begins to emerge.
MACD bottom divergence: Green bars (-6.83) continue to narrow, DIF (-27.33) levels off, bearish momentum is weakening.
Volume risk: 64,751 (<9-day average volume 124K), need to confirm direction with increased volume.
Low-risk strategy: Buy on support levels, chase higher on breakout at resistance levels.
Long Entry Conditions (Main Strategy):
The price rebounded within the range of 3510-3512 (above the previous low) and stabilized, with the MACD green bars narrowing to below -5.
Target: 3520 → 3528 (1x amplitude).
Stop loss: 3505 (break below previous low +0.15%).
Short Hedge Conditions (Sub-strategy):
The price rebounded to 3525-3528 with no volume (VOLUME<60,000), and the K value of KDJ is <25.
Target: 3515→3510.
Stop Loss: 3532 (breakthrough previous high).
Breakthrough Follow-up Order Conditions:
Breakthrough volume of 3530 (VOLUME > 80,000), chase long to 3540;
The volume broke below 3505, shorting to 3490.
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operating window: 04:45-06:00 (Asia early trading session liquidity recovery period).
Position duration: ≤20 minutes, take profit at $8-10 (avoid holiday fluctuations).
Position Management: ≤3% of total capital, profit-loss ratio ≥4:1 (stop loss $2, take profit $8).
Strategic advantages: Relying on the strong support zone of 3500 + MACD bottom divergence to go long, with favorable odds; the breakthrough mechanism captures sudden fluctuations in the Asian market.
Risk Warning: If the support at 3510 or the resistance at 3525 is not reached before 06:00, abandon trading due to persistently low trading volume.
Action Summary:
① Key Long Position: Long at 3511 with light position, stop loss at 3505, target at 3520→3528.
② Auxiliary short position: 3526 encountered resistance for short, stop loss at 3532, target at 3515. If the key level breaks out with volume, then chase the position in the direction of the trend.