Real-time prices, technical analysis, and key event interpretations of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on July 30, 2025, compiled with the latest market dynamics:

- **Bitcoin (BTC)**: reported at **$116,978**, down **0.94%** for the day, with a 24-hour low of around **$116,800**.
- **Ethereum (ETH)**: Reported in the **$3,746–$3,760** range, a 24-hour decline of **1.08%**, with **$8.56 million** in long liquidations across the network in the last hour (accounting for 83% of total liquidations).

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### 📊 **Technical Analysis and Key Trends**

#### **Bitcoin (BTC)**
1. **Resistance and Support**
- **Resistance Level**: Strong resistance at **$119,200–$120,000**, multiple failed attempts to break through in the past 5 trading days, forming a "weak high" supply area.
- **Support Level**: The key support is at **116,000–117,000 USD** (20-day EMA and structural breakout point). A drop below may test **112,500 USD** (50-day EMA).
- *Current Status*: The daily Bollinger Bands are narrowing ($115,800–$120,300), indicating a forthcoming direction choice.

2. **Indicator Signal**
- **Neutral to Weak**: The 4-hour Supertrend indicator maintains a bearish signal (resistance at $119,792); the MACD histogram shows decreasing volume indicating insufficient momentum.
- **On-chain data**: The exchange net outflow of BTC ($-39.29 million) reflects that some investors are holding coins and observing.

#### **Ethereum (ETH)**
1. **Resistance and Support**
- **Resistance Level**: **$3,880–$3,900** (yesterday's high), a breakout requires a firm hold above **$3,925** (7-week high).
- **Support Level**: **$3,700–$3,680** (EMA60 and Bollinger Band lower band), if broken, then looking at **$3,475** (trend channel support).

2. **Indicator Signals**
- **Callback Risk**: The 4-hour MACD death cross is spreading, and the DIF/DEA has entered the negative zone; if the daily line drops below $3,700, it will trigger a high-level death cross.
- **Special Background**: Today marks the tenth anniversary of Ethereum, and market sentiment may amplify volatility.

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### 🌍 **Key Events Driving Today**
1. **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision** (July 30)
- Expected to maintain interest rates **4.25%–4.50%** unchanged, focusing on the dot plot's hint about interest rate cuts. **Dovish signals** may boost risk assets (BTC/ETH), while hawkish remarks could exacerbate declines.

2. **U.S. White House Crypto Policy Report** (released on July 30, Beijing time)
- Focus on the **Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Plan** and the **Stablecoin Regulatory Framework**. If the policy becomes clearer, it may attract institutional funds; if regulation tightens, ETH may come under pressure due to its association with DeFi/NFT sectors.

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### 💡 **Operational Strategy Reference**
| Coin Type | Direction | Entry Range | Stop Loss | Target Position |
|--------|---------|----------------|--------------|---------------------|
| **BTC**| Empty | 118,000–119,000| 120,500 | 116,000→112,500 |
| | More | 116,000–116,500| 115,000 | 118,000→120,000 |
| **ETH**| Empty | 3,850–3,900 | 3,950 | 3,700→3,650 |
| | More | 3,680–3,700 | 3,630 | 3,800→3,850

*Note: Strategies need to be adjusted according to real-time market conditions, and stop-loss should be strictly set (recommended within 50 points).*

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### 💎 **Summary and Reminder**
- **BTC**: The intraday trend is **bearish**, focusing on the **$116,000 support line** in relation to Federal Reserve policy.
- **ETH**: The anniversary sentiment combined with regulatory reports, **$3,700 is the dividing line for bulls and bears**, falling below it increases the risk of a deep correction.
- **⚠️ Risk Warning**: The White House report may trigger instant severe fluctuations (±5%+), it is recommended to reduce leverage and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses. #Alpha 积分系统上线 #以太坊十周年 #ETF实物申购赎回