Foreign media: Hopes for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are fading, and investors are selling off U.S. long-term bonds.

Global Network

2025-6-1711:13 Beijing Global Network official account

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[Global Network Finance Comprehensive Report] According to Reuters, bond investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged again this week, and are selling long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, as their expectations for aggressive easing policies have cooled due to the lower likelihood of a U.S. economic recession.

The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with the market widely expecting the benchmark overnight interest rate to remain in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

"Long-term interest rates (30-year U.S. Treasury bonds) are approaching 5% due to significant pressure from selling duration," said Neil Aggarwal, head of securitized products and portfolio manager at Indianapolis Reams Asset Management. "There are concerns about volatility recently, and from a short-term perspective, if you expect volatility to persist, it's very difficult to hold long duration."

However, the weak consumer and producer price data in May has injected new vitality into expectations for interest rate cuts. Federal funds futures show that the market believes the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates consecutively in September has increased. Before the latest inflation data was released, the market had anticipated a rate cut in September, followed by another cut in December. It is worth mentioning that the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2024, and then paused the easing cycle at the beginning of this year.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist and fixed income portfolio manager at Crossmark Global Investments in Houston, said, "I don't necessarily want to go long term." Although traders are betting that the Federal Reserve's next rate cut will happen in July or September, Fernandez believes that the cut may not occur "until the end of the year or even next year."

此外,根据摩根大通最新发布的美国国债客户调查和核心主动债Securities Fund 指数,过去两个月长久期美债头寸有所下降。 4月和5月的30年期债券拍卖反响不佳,进一步放大了市场对持有长期债务的不情愿。 (Nanmu)