Predictions for the market bet that cryptocurrency will experience a bull run in 2025.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket both bet that 2025 will bring multiple benefits for the cryptocurrency.

Predictions in the market bet that cryptocurrency will experience a bull run in 2025.
Analysis
According to Cointelegraph's review of data from two popular prediction markets, gamblers are betting that 2025 will be a bountiful year for the encryption market.

Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to reach all-time highs in 2025. They also anticipate that the United States will approve several new types of encryption exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establish strategic Bitcoin reserves.

As of December 26, Kalshi's data shows that the probability of Bitcoin and Ethereum reaching at least $125,000 and $5,000 respectively in 2025 is over 60%. Polymarket believes that the probability of Bitcoin hitting $120,000 before the end of March is 50%.

So far, Bitcoin's historical high is around $108,300, and Ethereum's historical high is around $4,720.

Bitcoin price target Source: Kalshi

At the same time, gamblers on Polymarket expect that U.S. regulators will approve ETFs for Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC) by July 31, with probabilities of approximately 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. They believe that by then, the probability of approving a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF will be around 22%.

In addition, Kalshi users believe that the probability of the elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve during his presidency is 59%. Polymarket, on the other hand, believes that the probability of Trump doing so within the first 100 days of his term is only 29%.

Polymarket and Kalshi gained fame before the November U.S. elections, with trading volume related to the presidential race alone exceeding $4 billion.

Prediction markets operate by allowing users to trade contracts related to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. They have proven to be more accurate than traditional polls, predicting not only Trump's victory but also his party's sweep of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.

Contradictory signals
Compared to gambling platforms, the traditional futures market expects a more moderate increase in cryptocurrency in the first quarter of 2025.

At one of the largest futures exchanges in the United States, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), traders expect the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum in March to be approximately $98,000 and $3,500, respectively.

This still represents a significant increase compared to the spot prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum on December 26, which were $96,000 and $3,350, respectively. As of later in the morning on December 26, both cryptocurrencies had fallen by about 4%.

Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date. They play a key role in hedging strategies and are also commonly used for speculation.