#CPI数据来袭

Despite the latest data showing that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States cooled down in March, falling from 2.8% in February to 2.4%, slightly better than the market expectation of 2.5%, the price of Bitcoin remains under pressure, dropping below the $80,000 mark. As of this writing, Bitcoin has fallen about 1.6% in the past 24 hours. Generally speaking, the CPI, as a key indicator of inflation, its downward trend should alleviate the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which is favorable for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.

However, the positive CPI data failed to boost market sentiment. The S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Index both opened significantly lower and eventually closed down 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively. Even more concerning is that the overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has also shrunk by 2.8% in the past 24 hours, indicating that broader concerns are suppressing the potential benefits of slowing inflation.

The main focus of the market remains on U.S. President Trump's trade policy. On April 9, Trump announced that he would suspend the tariff increase originally planned to be implemented in 90 days and impose a 10% reciprocal tariff on most trading partners. However, it is worth noting that China is excluded from this range, and the U.S. has instead significantly raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, blaming Beijing for failing to comply with global trade norms. This move temporarily soothed the market, and investors welcomed the brief alleviation of trade tensions, pushing Bitcoin's price up by more than 7%, reaching $82,000.

However, the good times did not last long. Following China's announcement on April 10 to impose retaliatory tariffs of up to 84% on U.S. goods, market optimism quickly dissipated. This countermeasure once again reignited concerns about the protracted U.S.-China trade war, which will undoubtedly deal a heavy blow to investor confidence, especially after the 90-day tariff suspension period ends.

Analysts from The Kobeissi Letter point out that the combination of a strong employment report and easing inflation may actually provide Trump with greater political space to further escalate tariff policies, potentially offsetting the progress made in controlling inflation. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a recent rate cut by the Federal Reserve seems minimal. The FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group shows that the market expects an 81.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the May 7 meeting. With expectations for a rate cut unlikely until at least June, the macroeconomic backdrop remains filled with uncertainty for Bitcoin.

Since the beginning of this year, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin has significantly slowed down. Data from analysis platforms show that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin has plummeted from a peak of $100 billion to about $6 billion, a drop of over 90%. This is typically seen as a signal that investor interest is waning due to the current market uncertainty. Technical indicators also suggest potential downside risks. Analysts warn that if Bitcoin fails to hold the key support level of $80,000, it may retest lower support areas, which could include the 356-day exponential moving average located around $76,000.

该价格水平下方的关键观察点包括7.1万美元的活跃已实现价格,以及更糟糕情况下可能触及的接近6.5万美元的真实市场均值。 这些都是长期持有者通常会intervention的重要支撑区域。 然而,一旦比特币失守这些区间,可能预示着更深幅度的下跌。

尽管如此,并非所有分析师都将比特币近期的回调视为疲软的表现。 一些人认为,与传统金融市场相比,比特币的表现实际上相当稳健。 虽然比特币的7日实现波动率已翻倍到83%,但仍远低于标准普尔500指数,这暗示比特币可能正在发展成为一种相对于传统stock 的低贝塔值对冲资产。 从30日的时间维度来看,比特币的波动性也明显低于标准普尔500指数。 此外,链上数据显示,一些大型投资者正在利用价格跌进行买入。 数据显示,过去24小时内新增了132个持有超过10枚枚比币的"鲨鱼"钱包。 另有数据显示,约48,575枚比特币已流入积钱包,这是自202年以来观察到的最大规模的鲸鱼活动,这可能意味着主要持有者正在为更长期的布局作准备,即使短期内市场不确定性still exist。

Despite the tense market sentiment, some analysts are starting to see potential signs of recovery on the charts. Trader Merlijn The Trader pointed out that Bitcoin has just completed a double bottom pattern, which is often a classic signal for trend reversal. Given that Bitcoin is currently trading above $81,000 and has rebounded from the $79,900 level, a potential breakout may be imminent, with upward targets pointing towards around $86,000. Some analysts believe that if Bitcoin can achieve a weekly closing price above $86,000, it could open the way for bulls to further target $94,000. However, unless some form of resolution can be reached in the trade standoff between the U.S. and China, this tariff tug-of-war is likely to continue weighing on the entire market.