Officials from the Federal Reserve (FED) have indicated that the resilience of the labor market and stubborn inflation mean they can remain on hold, even as Trump's tariffs have weakened consumer and business confidence.

However, if the employment data falls short of expectations, it will shake this position (to hold steady), exacerbating the decision-making dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve (FED) in the rare dual threat of rising inflation and economic deterioration, and may even force the central bank to take action to support the economy.

The non-farm payroll data tonight can be interpreted in any way; the number of new jobs falling short of expectations can be interpreted as "confirming pessimistic expectations" as well as enhancing expectations for "The Federal Reserve (FED) bearish options."