US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) have not yet been released, and the current expectation is lower than the previous value.

The previous value was 15.1, and the expected value is 13.5.
Lower than the previous value is bullish for the crypto market, while higher than the previous value is bearish for the crypto market.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good = crypto circle will be hit?
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) disappointing = beneficial for the crypto market?
What is the principle? Let's understand the logic of the dog farm harvesting.
Jargon: US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeds expectations = The Federal Reserve will tighten = Betting chips become more expensive = Crypto market retail investors are being uprooted.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) = The Federal Reserve will print money = Free chips at the betting table = The house is forced to pump the market
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1. US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) bad, transmission logic
1. The good transmission chain of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) (the US dollar is the crypto world's father)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) surge → Unemployment rate ↓ → Wages rise ↑ → Inflation pressure ↑ → Federal Reserve raises interest rates ↑ → Dollar becomes more expensive → Risk assets (crypto market) are drained
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US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) transmission chain (liquidity is the mother of the crypto world)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is bad → Unemployment rate ↑ → Economic recession warning → Fed interest rate cut expectations ↑ → Dollar depreciation → Risk assets attract hot money → The crypto space becomes the biggest winner
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Survivor's Guide to Non-Farm Night
*【Spot Players】
Position control: Do not let the position exceed 40% of total funds, keep enough sub-orders.
Replenishing positions: wait for stabilization signals (such as closing above 83,000 this week) and appropriately increase positions.
*[Contract Player]
Deleveraging position:
Don't go all in with heavy positions, pay attention to risk, and even avoid opening contracts.
Take profit and stop loss must be included:
Stop-loss and take-profit suggestions are within ±0.5% range behind the key resistance.
For example, Bitcoin has a 400-point increase, and Ethereum has a 10-point increase.
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Set your stop-loss and take-profit properly, otherwise it’s easy to miss the exit.
Don't play "All-in", especially during the early morning market, as it can be very volatile.
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Simple way to look at the data stealing tactics:
1. Before the data is released
Check exchange contract positions:
When the long-short ratio is greater than 1.2, place a reverse order in advance.
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2. Moment of data release
Situation 1: New jobs > 300,000
→ Go long on more positions and short, target the previous low -3%, set stop loss at the high point before the data.
Situation 2: New jobs < 150,000
→ After the first wave of the rise, chase the long position during the pullback, and set the stop loss at the previous low before the data.
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3. 4 hours after the data is released
Observe the divergence between BTC and the Nasdaq trend:
→ NASDAQ rises, BTC falls = Institutions abandon coins for stock selection → Continue to be bearish
→ Nasdaq down BTC up = Cryptocurrency market independent trend → Increase positions in altcoins
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Three, the laws of metaphysics
In the last 12 non-farm payroll nights, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction 9 times within 4 hours after the data was released. ( If the data is good, it first drops and then rises; if the data is bad, it first rises and then drops. ) The true direction only materializes after 1 AM.
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In the months when the BTC trend is opposite to the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), it accounts for 63%.
Within two hours after the data is released, the "Dog Trap" must appear (fake breakout) (.
If the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data for the month is released on Friday, there will be a big wave of fluctuations + spikes over the weekend.
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4. Uncommon Knowledge Traps (Only Old Investors Understand)
1. Poorer US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) does not equal rising cryptocurrency prices: If CPI exceeds expectations at the same time, it may trigger "stagflation panic," causing BTC to plummet.
2. Data falsification suspicion: When the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) are far below expectations but the labor participation rate declines simultaneously, it may indicate a "fake fall"; beware of the market makers luring in buyers before a counterattack.
3. Unemployment Rate Paradox: Unemployment rate rises but hourly wage growth exceeds 5% → Bearish (inflation is stubborn), short BTC/long gold
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Reminder:
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is just an appetizer, the real knife is the CPI data released afterwards.
Remember the mnemonic
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good → wait for CPI to strike, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) bad → wait for the Fed to ease, it’s all a gamble, better to follow the dog traders and catch the waves~