Can Small Coinbase Inflows Move XRP Price? Analyst Says Yes – But There’s a Catch

Here’s a theory floating around: small inflows to Coinbase could actually push the XRP price higher. Sounds counterintuitive, right?

Normally when coins flow into exchanges, people expect selling pressure. But pundit Chad Steingraber makes an interesting argument based on supply dynamics.

Steingraber suggested that Coinbase’s lower XRP supply means even modest inflows could help push prices up. His data showed Coinbase holding just over 3 million XRP in reserve. Well, that is not a lot in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, there are a few catches to all of this.

The first issue here is that Coinbase’s own proof of reserves disclosure reveals something very different from what we were just discussing. According to their own disclosure, Coinbase actually holds 39.5 million XRP tokens, not 3 million.

If the exchange actually holds ten times more XRP than Steingraber’s data suggests, the whole “low supply” argument gets shaky.

Even if the order books on Coinbase are less liquid compared to other exchanges, Ripple’s XRP is still traded on every platform. I’m talking about over 16 billion tokens out there in circulation on Binance, Upbit, Kraken, and many other exchanges.

If the XRP price is going to be affected purely because of the order books on Coinbase, I think the price would not last very long because arbitrageurs would jump in.

Here’s the thing about exchange inflows, they usually signal selling pressure, not buying. When people send coins to exchanges, the assumption is they’re getting ready to sell. So Steingraber’s bullish interpretation of Coinbase inflows goes against traditional market analysis.

And the recent data actually supports the conventional view. Over the past week, Coinbase recorded $40.61 million in XRP outflows.

That means more XRP left the exchange than arrived. Upbit saw $83.46 million leave. Binance had $37.01 million in outflows. Across the board, XRP is moving off exchanges.

Outflows are typically seen as bullish, people moving coins to cold storage, signaling they don’t plan to sell anytime soon.

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So What’s Really Happening?

XRP is sitting at $1.40 after the recent pullback from that $1.46 high on peace talk rumors. The market’s been choppy, sentiment is mixed, and everyone’s watching to see if the Iran situation actually de-escalates.

Steingraber’s theory isn’t completely crazy. Thin order books can absolutely cause short-term price swings. If Coinbase really had only 3 million XRP available, a decent sized buy order could move the market there. But that move wouldn’t necessarily translate to the global XRP price across all exchanges.

The bigger picture is that Ripple’s XRP outflows are dominating right now. More coins leaving exchanges than arriving. That’s typically accumulation behavior. Whether that’s smart money positioning for a rally or just holders getting nervous and self-custodying is hard to say.

However, could small Coinbase inflows move XRP price? Maybe. But the data shows outflows, not inflows, and Coinbase likely holds more XRP than initially thought. The catch is that even if Steingraber’s theory plays out, any single-exchange price move would probably get arbitraged away pretty quickly.

Watch the broader outflow trend instead. That’s telling you what holders are actually doing with their coins.