Bitcoin Shows ‘Tentative Signs of Improvement’ as Iran Conflict Fears Wane

In brief

• Bitcoin has climbed more than 4% to roughly $69,100 as risk assets steadied after oil retreated from a spike tied to Middle East tensions.
• Futures open interest and aggressive buying in perpetual markets suggest traders are cautiously returning to leveraged positions.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have risen to about $934 million, even as trading volumes and network activity remain subdued.

Bitcoin’s market structure is showing early signs of stabilizing after weeks of pressure, according to a new market note from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, even as the escalating conflict involving Iran continued to roil global financial markets. Bitcoin is up 4.3% on the day to around $69,100 and holding relatively steady after recent volatility tied to geopolitical tensions and surging oil prices sent digital assets lower last week. In its weekly market pulse published Monday, Glassnode said the crypto’s internal metrics suggest the worst of the recent stress may be easing, though the recovery remains “tentative.” 

“Overall, conditions are stabilizing, with momentum, ETF demand, and profitability metrics improving,” the firm wrote, noting that price momentum has firmed modestly but still lacks the strength of a decisive bullish shift. Analysts have previously pointed to the broader macro backdrop, which remains unsettled, as global markets have grappled with the fallout from the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. Crude prices surged on Monday on fears the conflict could disrupt shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, briefly pushing Brent crude as high as about $119.50 a barrel before retreating to roughly $91–$100 after President Donald Trump suggested the war involving Iran might soon de-escalate. U.S. equities have swung sharply in recent sessions, with major indexes slipping as investors weighed the inflationary impact of higher oil prices and the risk of a prolonged geopolitical conflict.

Modest uplifts were observed late in the U.S. trading session following Trump’s comments, with the S&P 500 closing 0.8% higher on the day. Against that backdrop, Glassnode said several indicators within the Bitcoin market are beginning to stabilize. Futures open interest has increased, suggesting a modest build-up of leverage, while aggressive buying in perpetual derivatives markets points to renewed interest from traders.  While Bitcoin has yet to “fully earn” its “digital gold” narrative, its practical use case as a “digital escape hatch” is becoming “increasingly relevant,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote in an investor note on Monday. “Although its long-term trajectory remains uncertain, recent price action against a backdrop of escalating tensions suggests growing recognition of this function,” they added. ETF flows have also strengthened, rising to $934 million, up 20% or $158 million, from the week prior, Glassnode wrote. Still, other indicators suggest the recovery remains fragile. Spot trading volumes remain subdued, and network activity has waned, pointing to limited participation.

“Capital flows remain soft,” the report noted, indicating broader conviction has yet to fully return.