XRP / USD Market Review
Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/XRP_USDT
As of the time of writing, XRP / USD is around 2.28 USD, slightly rebounding from last week. Since late April, XRP once touched the 2.10 USD support level, but after the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump’s tariff policy, the price quickly recovered. Bulls found support around 2.20 USD, and market sentiment is gradually warming up. Overall, XRP is still in a sideways consolidation phase, with a short-term target price focusing on a 14% upside potential near 2.63 USD.
Recent market news and macroeconomic impacts
- Impact of US Court Ruling
On May 28, the U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval, alleviating market concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty and leading to an overall rebound in digital assets. XRP, as the leading cryptocurrency in the cross-border payment sector, has seen significant short-term benefits. - SEC Crypto Roundtable Expected
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it will hold a roundtable titled “DeFi and the Spirit of America” on June 9 at its Washington headquarters, gathering industry representatives from the DeFi and crypto sectors. The XRP community expects the meeting to release a more relaxed regulatory signal, further boosting the potential rise of XRP / USD. - Changes in International Capital Flows
According to the latest data from CoinGecko and Glassnode, in late May, the net inflow of global Bitcoin and Ethereum funds decreased, while the net inflow of XRP-related products saw a slight rebound, indicating that institutions are beginning to return to the market. Meanwhile, some exchanges in Asia and Europe have seen an increase in orders for XRP / USD, suggesting that short-term buying pressure is building.
Technical Analysis: Descending Wedge and Key Moving Averages
- Falling Wedge pattern
From the 4-hour chart, XRP / USD has formed a typical descending wedge structure since mid-May: two descending trend lines are gradually converging, and the trading volume is showing a decreasing trend. This pattern usually indicates a weakening of selling pressure, and bulls are expected to see a rebound after breaking above the trend line. If the bulls can effectively reclaim $2.35 (the upper boundary of the wedge), they are likely to further target the $2.50 — $2.63 area. - Key Moving Average Resistance
XRP has currently broken below the 50-period and 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, remaining under pressure in the short term. If the price can regain and stabilize above the 50 EMA (around 2.30 USD), it may provide initial momentum for bulls. Additionally, from a mid to long-term perspective, the 200-period EMA (around 2.40 USD) is an important resistance level, and caution is needed regarding selling pressure at this position. - Momentum Indicator Alert
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI has rebounded from below the 50 midline, currently trading in the 48 - 52 range, indicating that bearish momentum has weakened, and bulls may find short-term support at USD 2.20 - 2.25.
- MACD: The MACD histogram is starting to shorten, but the blue fast line is still below the red slow line, and a significant golden cross has not yet formed. If the fast line produces a golden cross signal above the 0 axis, it is expected to drive the price further upward.
Funding data: Derivatives and volume changes
- Open Interest
According to data from platforms like CME and BitMEX, the open interest in the XRP / USD derivatives market is approximately 467 million USD, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous day, reflecting a rapid adjustment of positions by both bulls and bears. Meanwhile, the 24-hour trading volume has increased by 50% to 445 million USD, indicating a high level of trading activity in the short term, but there is also pressure for position liquidation. - Spot Orders and Capital Flow in the Exchange
Since the end of May, the buy orders for XRP / USD on mainstream exchanges such as Binance and OKEx have concentrated in the range of 2.20 — 2.25 USD, while the sell orders have concentrated in the range of 2.30 — 2.35 USD. If the buying pressure remains effectively supported in the 2.20 USD area, it could provide support for further rebounds. - Wallet address and network activity
According to data from Etherscan and RippleCharts, since late May, the number of active addresses has shown a moderate increase, with daily active addresses rising from 70,000 to 90,000, indicating a renewed interest in XRP in the market. The average daily transaction count has also increased from 160,000 to 190,000, suggesting an uptick in cross-border payments and decentralized trading activities based on XRP.
Risk Warning and Operational Strategy
- downside risk
- Key support level breached: If XRP/USD fails to hold above $2.20 and breaks below the demand zone, it may subsequently test the $2.00 psychological level. If this area is breached again, bullish sentiment may further turn bearish.
- Macroeconomic policy uncertainty: Although the recent U.S. court ruling has temporarily eased tensions, if the U.S. government introduces new cryptocurrency regulations or imposes restrictions on cross-border payment institutions, it will have a negative impact on XRP.
- upward opportunity
- Falling wedge breakout confirmation: If the price can effectively break through the upper boundary of 2.35 USD with significant trading volume, bulls are expected to target the 2.50 — 2.63 USD area, with a short-term increase of about 14%.
- SEC Roundtable Meeting Positive: If the meeting on June 9 conveys a more relaxed regulatory signal, XRP may become a short-term focal point, and its price could gain further momentum.
- Operation Suggestions
- Beginners can focus on the short-term range: If you want to enter, you can gradually build positions in the range of 2.20 - 2.22 USD, with a stop-loss set at 2.15 USD, aiming for a target of 2.35 - 2.40 USD.
- Medium-term investors can patiently wait for confirmation: if the price retraces to the key support of 2.00 USD, consider accumulating positions in this range, with a target price of 2.63 USD, providing an upside potential of about 30%.
- Timely take profit and stop loss: Based on your own risk preference, you can set the take profit point near 2.63 USD and sell in batches to lock in profits. If it falls below 2.15 USD, promptly stop loss to reduce losses.
Conclusion and Outlook
Combining recent news and technical signals, XRP / USD is currently in a consolidation phase at the bottom, with solid support at $2.20 and strong resistance at $2.35. If it can break through $2.35 with increasing trading volume, XRP is expected to aim for a target range of $2.50 — $2.63, achieving a 10% — 14% increase. Meanwhile, if it falls below $2.20, one should be cautious about a further decline towards $2.00. Investors need to pay attention to the SEC roundtable on June 9 and changes in international capital flows, and flexibly grasp the opportunities for building positions and taking profits based on technical and news factors.
