HBAR Price Faces 27% Plunge Risk: In-Depth Technical and Fundamental Analysis

1. HBAR Latest Price Overview

Figure:https://www.gate.com/trade/HBAR_USDT

As of the time of writing (June 23, 2025), Hedera (HBAR) is priced at approximately $0.1337, down 12.5% from a week ago. The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $160 million, with a market cap of about $5.64 billion. The fluctuation range over the past seven days has been between $0.1225 and $0.1522, with overall market sentiment leaning pessimistic. New investors should pay attention to recent key indicator changes to assess short-term trends.

2. The signal significance of the big dump in stablecoin supply

• Supply plummets: The supply of major stablecoins within the Hedera ecosystem has sharply decreased from $214 million in early June 2025 to about $50 million now, a decline of over 75%. Supply is usually positively correlated with trading demand, borrowing scale, and user confidence, and its drastic reduction indicates a sudden halt in core ecosystem activities.
• Possible reasons: It may be related to large holders or institutional users redeeming liquidity, and concerns about the stablecoin peg mechanism spreading cannot be ruled out.
• Market Impact: When the liquidity of stablecoins tightens, users will find it difficult to efficiently complete transactions and lending on the Hedera chain, leading to a simultaneous decline in ecosystem activity and fee income.

3. On-chain transaction fees and TVL changes

• Fee decrease: Daily average income dropped from a peak of $4,000 to $1,600, a reduction of over 60%, affecting the earnings of on-chain project parties and node operators.
• TVL Loss: More than 50% of the funds originally locked in DeFi applications have been withdrawn, and liquidity exhaustion may exacerbate price volatility.

4. Technical outlook is bearish: downward channel and key support

From the daily chart, HBAR has been operating within a downward channel since the $0.40 high point at the end of 2024. Recently, the price has been repeatedly blocked near the middle track of the channel and the 50-day EMA.

• The moving averages show a dead cross: the short-term moving average has crossed below the long-term moving average multiple times, indicating strong downward momentum.
• MACD and RSI: The MACD histogram remains negative, and the RSI briefly dropped below 40, indicating weak momentum.
• Key support: $0.1236 (lower channel boundary), if it falls below, there is a 27% room to $0.0980;
• Resistance levels: $0.1520 (mid-channel) and $0.2290 (previous high), need to break through to reverse the bearish trend.

5. 27% big dump path analysis

1. Initial pullback ($0.1337 → $0.1236): Stress testing the current support. If market confidence does not recover, it will open up downside potential.
2. Second confirmation ($0.1236 → $0.1100): After breaking the lower bound, the $0.1100 area, which briefly rebounded in early February 2025, will become the next support.
3. Target level ($0.1100 → $0.0980): If the overall macro environment and on-chain data continue to deteriorate, it may test the lows around August 2024.

6. Risk Response and Investment Advice

• Position building in batches and stop-loss protection: funds can be evenly allocated in batches around $0.12, while setting the stop-loss at $0.1180 to control the maximum risk per trade.
• Flexible position adjustment: If it falls below $0.1236 and there is a large-scale outflow of funds, it is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see; if it stabilizes at the lower track and there is a rebound in volume, positions can be gradually increased.
• Dynamic tracking of on-chain data: Real-time monitoring of changes in stablecoin supply, transaction fees, and TVL data to capture market turning points.
• Diversified investment strategy: Combine low market cap, high potential projects to hedge against the risk of single assets in small proportions.
• Pay attention to ecosystem updates: Keep an eye on Hedera governance trends, new project launches, and potential benefits such as node reward adjustments.