Gate Institutional Weekly: Energy Shock Drives Oil Surge, Risk Assets Turn Risk-Off (Mar 2–Mar 8, 2026)

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Global markets were notably driven by energy price shocks and geopolitical risks over the past week. Escalating tensions in the Middle East propelled oil prices upward, with WTI surging more than 25% for the week. As a result, the market entered a risk-off phase, prompting BTC, ETH, and US equities to pull back simultaneously. From a macro standpoint, although rising oil prices are unlikely to trigger a recession directly, they could elevate inflation and delay interest rate cuts in the coming months. On-chain activity saw DEX trading volumes remain high, with liquidity further concentrating in top protocols. The total stablecoin market cap climbed to around $330 billion, with USDC emerging as the main source of incremental capital. In the derivatives market, funding rates stayed predominantly negative and option volatility increased, reflecting continued vigilance toward tail risks. Overall, the market is navigating a stage of macro risk repricing and liquidity reallocation. Looking ahead to next week, atten

Key Market Highlights from Last Week:

Market Focus: Energy shocks pushed oil prices sharply higher and drove global markets into a temporary risk-off phase. Although rising oil prices are unlikely to directly trigger an economic recession, they may push inflation higher in the coming months and delay the pace of rate cuts. The crypto market broadly followed the pullback in risk assets, with BTC and ETH fluctuating within a range as markets continue to reprice macro risks.

Liquidity Analysis: Spot ETF flows remained relatively stable overall. BTC saw intermittent net inflows while ETH flows remained comparatively smaller. In Perp DEX markets, TradFi related trading volume continued to recover, with commodities becoming the dominant category and accounting for roughly half of total volume. XAUT order book data shows that sell pressure has recently remained dominant while buy orders are relatively scattered, suggesting cautious short term sentiment.

On-Chain Insights: Total DEX trading volume reached approximately $96.5 billion, broadly unchanged from the previous week. Liquidity continued to concentrate among leading protocols, with PancakeSwap maintaining the top position. The total stablecoin supply rose to around $330 billion, with USDC serving as the primary source of incremental growth this week. The liquid staking sector was relatively weak overall. Leading ETH LST protocols saw a modest decline in TVL, while several SOL ecosystem protocols maintained relatively strong activity.

Derivatives Tracking: BTC perpetual funding rates remained negative, indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates the leveraged market. Open interest increased alongside recent price rebounds, suggesting renewed participation from leveraged traders. Options trading volume rose significantly and implied volatility climbed above 60 percent, indicating that markets are actively pricing future volatility and hedging risks.

Outlook for Next Week: Markets will closely watch February CPI, initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. These indicators will directly influence inflation expectations and the Fed policy path.

Institutional Update: Gate TradFi API is now live, with TradFi services fully rolled out for institutional clients.

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