Crashes, Manias and Panic's

Crashes, Manias and Panic’s

It feels brutal out there, there is no hope. It is over. You missed it. You fucked it up, again.

Everyone is angry, confused. People who even foresaw it feel pleased but many also can see how much price action like this hurts people. These feel like the worst of times.

I’ve been in markets for 38 years now (Todays sell off is a nice birthday gift along with the food poisoning I got last night!) and Ive seen every type of crash and panic.

They all feel the same. Fucking awful.

I’ve been in crypto since 2013. I first bought BTC at $200 back then.

It rallied for a bit after I bought it and then fell -75%.. and this was during the bull market which eventually topped +10x above my entry. I didn’t sell as it was a long-term investment and I knew the risk.

It then fell -87% in the bear market of 2014.

I suffered three -35% to -45% sell offs in the bull market that followed into 2017… Brutal. I eventually sold out at $2000 (the previous high from 2013) due to the BTC forking wars.

I had made 10x from my original entry. It went up another 10x into the end of the year (!!) before starting another big, ugly bear.

I sidestepped that entire bear market and felt good about it.

I rebought during the Covid crash at $6,500 (3.5x higher then when I sold out). A very costly mistake indeed for doing “the right thing”.

In 2021 BTC fell -50% from April to July in a market much like this. The sentiment on Twitter was awful then. Truly awful. But back then the market wasn’t really as oversold as it is today…

By Nov 2021 the market was back at all time highs. SOL rallied 13x from its lows. ETH doubled. BTC hit new highs, rallying 150%.

I’ve lived all of this. Every horrific, gut-wrenching moment all within a secular bull market.

My first entry was at $200. The price is now $65,000. I even missed a 3.5x in the middle by timing the market (badly).

The first key lesson (for me) in a secular rising asset is just to do nothing. HODL is a meme for a very good reason. It is much more powerful than the 4yr cycle meme.

My second lesson was to add aggressively in the sell offs. Even if I didn’t time them right, averaging into weakness to add to the overall position massively compounds returns over time, even more so than DCA’ing.

I didn’t always have cash to buy meaningfully into a sell off but I’d always buy something as its good to train your psyche.

It always feels like you’ve missed your chance, it’s never coming back, it’s all going to blow up forever. It is not the case.

Ask yourself two questions:

• Will tomorrow be more digital than today?
• Will fiat currency be worth less than today?

If the answer to those is yes, then carry on. BTFD and let time in the market beat timing the markets, because it always does. Adding into big sell offs lowers your high water mark. It makes a BIG difference.

The stress, fear and self-doubt are to be an expected tax on that journey.

Position sizing is important for your own risk tolerance. Don’t worry, everyone feels like they were too big in the trade when it falls and not big enough when it’s rallying. You just need to manage those emotions and find your own sweet spot.

The other key thing is not to rent the conviction of others. DYOR is a very important meme. You will not survive these episodes without it.

Earn your conviction. Renting conviction is like leverage, it’ll blow you up.

Remember - when you are busy blaming others, you are really just blaming yourself.

Yes, it feels dark out there. Soon the sun will come out again and this will just be another scar in the journey (as long as you don’t use leverage! Leverage leads to permanent loss of capital as you lose your stake at the casino). Never lose your stake.

When will this all pass? I dont know but I think this is more like April to November 2021 - a panic in bull market. I think it ends very soon. And if Im wrong, I won’t do anything different. I’ll just keep adding when I have some cash.

But for you, it might be different. Try to have a minimal regrets portfolio. Can you take another 50% fall from here? If not, lighten up, even if it feels stupid to do so. Having the right mindset is crucial to survival. My mindset shifts to how can I buy more. Yours may be the opposite.

There are always some market timers that get the sell off right and close out or go short. There always will be. But truth be told, you just need to tell yourself that it is always expected, at ay point. Then you don’t get stress when they happen because you knew it would! It becomes just part of the story, and not THE story.

What am I doing now?

Well I’m starting to buy some more digital art (which is adding ETH too) and I’ll look to add more to my crypto allocation in the next week, same as I’ve done every time this opportunity has arisen.

I bought the Covid sell off, the sell offs in 2021, the 2022 sell off, the 2023 one and same in 2024 and 2025! I’ll do so again this time. Every time my P&L hits new highs before the market. It works like magic. Again… BTFD!

Good luck out there. It’s never easy.

Volatility is the price we pay for assets that compound these kinds of returns over time. Embrace it.

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