2026 Crypto Cycle Explained: What Is the Crypto Market Cycle and Does It Still Work?

What is the crypto market cycle?

The crypto market cycle refers to a phenomenon where market prices and investor sentiment show cyclical changes over time. It is typically divided into five stages: accumulation → upward movement → peak → decline → consolidation. This pattern is repeated across multiple cycles and is considered by many traders as an important tool for understanding price behavior.

The formation of cycles is primarily driven by three factors: supply and demand relationships (such as halving events), market sentiment (changes in risk preference), and the macro environment (liquidity, interest rates, etc.).

Historical cycle samples

Since the birth of Bitcoin, historical data shows that the market has experienced multiple significant cycles. For example, the cycles from 2013 to 2014, from 2017 to 2018, and from 2021 to 2022 all exhibited peaks and deep adjustments. During each cycle, the price of Bitcoin often experiences a sharp rise followed by a severe correction, eventually entering a long-term sideways adjustment phase.

2025-2026 Market Status Review

After experiencing an increase in early 2025, Bitcoin did not maintain a strong rise throughout the year alongside mainstream assets, but instead showed a significant retracement trend at the end of the year and in early 2026. As of early 2026, the price of Bitcoin continued to decline and was affected by changes in expectations regarding macro policies.

Market sentiment has shifted from exuberance to caution, with some analysts suggesting that the current trend resembles a structural adjustment period rather than a traditional cycle peak or end.

Has the cycle model failed? Comparison of bullish viewpoints

Recently, market analysts have been hotly debating whether the cycle has failed. Some believe that as the degree of institutionalization increases and trading behaviors align more closely with traditional financial markets, the classic four-year cycle is less likely to appear as stably as it did in the past.

However, another viewpoint points out that cycles as a description of price phase changes still hold significance, but the driving parameters have changed - they are no longer solely dominated by halving events, but are more influenced by global liquidity and macro decisions.

The future form of cycles and market evolution

The future cycles may integrate more factors, such as ETF capital flows, regulatory processes, macro liquidity, etc., making them more complex and multidimensional compared to traditional single time cycles. Cyclical trends still exist, but they may not be as straightforward as in the past.

Practical tips for readers

• Grasping the cyclical phases can help in judging the major trends.
• Do not blindly rely on cyclical patterns as a trading strategy;
• Combine on-chain data, macro indicators, and fundamental information;
• Rationally view volatility and focus on long-term risk management.