Latest data shows BTC IV holding around 39%, with implied volatility once again moving above realized volatility, indicating the market is still pricing in premium for further volatility and potential upside following the breakout. ETH IV remains near 55%, continuing to trade significantly above RV. In traditional markets, the gold volatility index (GVZ) has fallen back into the 26–29 range, signaling easing safe-haven demand, while the crude oil volatility index (OVX) remains elevated near 72, suggesting geopolitical and supply-side risks are still being priced into energy markets.
ETH 25-Delta Skew is approaching a critical inflection point. Over the past week, mid-to-long-dated skew has remained stable between +2 and +5, suggesting long-term risk appetite has recovered. Meanwhile, short-dated skew repeatedly turned negative during event-driven volatility, briefly dropping to the -10 to -15 range on 5/3 and 5/6 before quickly reverting back toward neutral. If ETH can firmly hold above $2,400, a front-end skew flip into positive territory alongside positive mid-to-long-term skew would confirm the market transitioning from event hedging into upside momentum chasing.
BTC and ETH GEX Term Structures both show near-term Gamma turning decisively positive, as ETF inflows and Call accumulation continue driving the market into a positive Gamma “slow bull” structure. Following BTC’s breakout above $80K, positive Gamma peaks into late May and June have become increasingly pronounced, while ETH’s stabilization above $2,400 continues fueling catch-up rally expectations. Under dealer Long Gamma positioning, the market is more likely to experience high-level consolidation with gradual upside and continued IV compression. Bull Call Spreads and short Put strategies remain structurally favored. However, longer-dated expiries still retain pockets of negative Gamma exposure, indicating ongoing tail-risk hedging demand tied to macro and policy uncertainty.
Over the past 24 hours, the largest BTC and ETH options block trades were as follows:
BTC: BTC-8MAY26-88000-C traded 1,001.8 contracts, representing approximately $81.20M in notional value.
ETH: ETH-15MAY26-2600-C traded 14,288 contracts, representing approximately $33.29M in notional value.
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