Adam@Greeks.live

The price of BTC has already started to break below the Gex congestion zone, and the resistance from long positions will become weaker and weaker. ETH, because the Gex is concentrated around $2000, has also broken through the Gex resistance level.
Although BTC has fallen to a very dangerous position, IV has not increased significantly, not only is the all-term IV below 40%, but the distant IV is also continuously decreasing. The three consecutive days of decline have not effectively boosted the near-term IV.
In this situation, the May expiration is roughly around 20%, and tomorrow's monthl

Suddenly noticing that today is the 519 Fifth Anniversary, time flies so fast. At that time, dual-currency wealth management was booming, with institutional sellers entering the market one after another like crossing a river full of crocodiles. Implied volatility dropped from 90% in 2019 to 65% in early 2021, and the downward trend was very obvious, almost without rebound. The market has been saying that institutions have already collapsed the market, and volatility will only get smaller and smaller.
However, 519 arrived quietly, followed by a series of institutional collapses such as Three

Analyzed the weekend market trends using Options Terminal:
👍 Large funds are clearly doing three things:
1. Selling near-term gamma / selling near-month volatility
2. Buying mid-to-long-term downside protection or constructing put fly / collar style defensive structures
3. Around 79k–80k, doing pinning and rolling, with the overall market not entering panic pricing
👌 Summarized in one sentence:
Institutions are not betting on "BTC collapsing immediately" over the weekend, but are using low-cost structures to hedge the left tail while continuing to harvest near-term time value.

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【May 8th Options Settlement Data】
20k BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.73, the maximum pain point at $79,500, and a notional value of $1.6 billion.
182k ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.93, the maximum pain point at $2,350, and a notional value of $410 million.
This week, Bitcoin rose from $75,000 to $82,000, then pulled back last night. Despite the good market trend, market sentiment has remained relatively calm, with main-term options and short-term RV remaining unchanged from last week, while short-term RV has increased. Bitcoin’s main short-term impl

The Bitcoin Little Deer that I kept recommending at the beginning of the year suddenly took off, which is a good thing. Although I bought it and held it for a few months without moving, I haven't mentioned it recently.
The crypto stocks in the US stock market have been performing well lately, and this is a long-term signal, with the cycle of fluctuations measured in months.

【May 1st Options Settlement Data】
23k BTC options expire, Put Call Ratio is 1.13, maximum pain point is $76,000, notional value is $1.74 billion.
175k ETH options expire, Put Call Ratio is 0.94, maximum pain point is $2,325, notional value is $400 million.
This week's market fluctuations were relatively small, Bitcoin remained around $78,000 with sideways movement, market sentiment gradually stabilized, short-term RV dropped significantly, and the monthly expiration released nearly a quarter of the position margin. This week, implied volatility of major expiry options showed a noticeable

【April 24th Options Settlement Data】
109k BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.93, the maximum pain point at $72,000, and a notional value of $8.55 billion.
563k ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.72, the maximum pain point at $2,200, and a notional value of $1.32 billion.
This week, the market continues to rebound, with Bitcoin strongly breaking through $78,000, and the Web3 conference in Hong Kong also filled with a cheerful atmosphere of upward movement, with altcoin markets also warming up. This is a monthly settlement, with 25% of options set to exp

[April 17th Options Settlement Data]
22k BTC options are expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 1.05, the maximum pain point at $72,000, and a notional value of $1.65 billion.
100k ETH options are expiring, with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.95, the maximum pain point at $2,250, and a notional value of $460 million.
This week's market continues to rebound, with Bitcoin oscillating around $75,000, and the market beginning to warm up, with some concepts showing significant gains. The market share of Bitcoin options has slightly decreased, and altcoins are recovering. Regarding holding periods, the distribut

【April 10th Options Settlement Data】
27k BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.71, the maximum pain point at $69,000, and a notional value of $1.94 billion.
151k ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, the maximum pain point at $2,050, and a notional value of $330 million.
This week's market was stimulated by the US-Iran ceasefire, with Bitcoin directly breaking through $72,000, surpassing recent sideways trading ranges.
Bitcoin options market share has continued to stay above 80%, with the most open interest in late April and late June, mainly focusing

The world's understanding of Trump is less than 5%. Yesterday, he was still trying to erase Iran, and today there's a ceasefire agreement. Trump himself didn't open a long position, so it's hard to argue otherwise.
Bitcoin quickly surged to 72K, but the implied volatility (IV) of major expiry options is still declining, and even the IV of near-term options has decreased. The skew has been negatively affected by the upward movement. At the same time, due to the rise in RV, the VRP, which rebounded significantly yesterday, has fallen again.
Looking at the main options indicators, the rebound

【April 3rd Options Expiration Data】
28,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.54. The maximum pain point is $68,000, with a notional value of $1.8 billion.
156,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.73. The maximum pain point is $2,075, with a notional value of $320 million.
Today is the first weekly expiration after the quarterly settlement day. Bitcoin options market share has risen to a new level, clearly exceeding 80%. In terms of expiration dates, the most held positions are at the end of April and June, each accounting for about 23%. Ethereum has

Today, options trading volume accounts for nearly 30% of the total trading volume, mainly centered around the large Iron Eagle portfolio expiring tomorrow, with a notional value exceeding 7,000 BTC, betting that BTC will break through $68,000 tomorrow.
The use of premiums is not considered high, but directly betting on options expiring in 20 hours is still quite bold. In this situation, block trades are the most worth monitoring for follow-up or copying, as large trades often indicate strong opinions.

【March 27 Options Expiration Data】
68,000 BTC options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56. The maximum pain point is $74,000, with a notional value of $13 billion.
370,000 ETH options are expiring, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.56. The maximum pain point is $2,250, with a notional value of $2.12 billion.
Today is the quarterly expiration day. Approximately 36% of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring. This week, a large number of options have been rolled over, with peak open interest exceeding 40%. Due to the large expiration, the call option ratio is high, and the PCR is only 0

Q1 Quarterly Large Settlement Day Approaching, Tomorrow Will Mark the Largest Options Settlement of the Year, with Nearly 40% of Options Expiring.
1. Key Settlement Data
BTC Max Pain (Max Pain): Currently anchored at $75,000, but it seems hopeless given the current situation. Put/Call Ratio (P/C Ratio): Maintained around 0.6, relatively low, indicating lower trading volume in put options, but overall sentiment remains bearish.
2. Volatility (IV) Warning: IV Crush is Coming. Currently, the front-end implied volatility (Front-end IV) close to expiration remains firm. But once the settlement tomo

BTC rebounded and maintained oscillations around $71,000, with the downside crisis temporarily lifted. IV across all major tenors showed significant declines, with BTC medium-term IV dropping over 5% from peak levels and over 3% compared to two days ago. ETH medium-term IV fell over 8% from peak levels and over 5% compared to two days ago.
Skew rebounded comprehensively, with many bearish options positions established during the crisis being closed out, restoring balance between bearish and bullish forces. This Friday marks the quarterly expiration with over 40% of options expiring. The most c