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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller took a more hawkish stance: due to the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, rising energy prices, and the risk of more persistent inflation, he supports keeping rates at their current level in the near term. Waller said the Fed should remove language with an easing bias, since a rate cut no longer appears more likely than a rate hike.
He also noted that he can no longer rule out rate hikes later if inflation does not weaken, especially if inflation expectations begin to become unanchored. Previously, he had supported rate cuts, viewing earlier pri

Two supply signals hit Bitcoin at the same time last week:
1) +18K BTC flowed onto exchanges
2) US spot ETFs saw -16K BTC in outflows
Together, that is roughly 34K BTC of local pressure.
ETF demand did not absorb the exchange inflow. It added to the pressure.
☕️ Morning Brief #176 breaks down what needs to flip before BTC rebounds stop looking vulnerable. 👇

WTI at $97 per barrel is a negative macro factor because this price increases fuel, logistics, production and import costs, strengthens inflationary pressure and may force central banks to keep rates higher for longer.

The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.068%, the highest since the October 2023 peak. The bond market is sending a warning signal.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit a record low in May 2026, falling to 44.8 below the preliminary estimate of 48.2. The decline marked the third consecutive monthly drop amid rising gasoline prices due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Canadian commodity prices rose 2.6% MoM in April 2026, following a 11.9% surge in March - supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to push energy prices higher.

Long liquidations since May 10 totaled $1.03B. The peak fell on May 15–17 = $703M, or 68% of the total volume over the period.

BTC is trading below STH cost basis.
$80,217 = STH break-even $77,550 = current price
Average STH is underwater and losses are now being realized:
Net Realized P/L: -$176M Losses: $366M Profits: $190M
Until $80.2K is reclaimed, bounces lack confirmation.
☕️Adler AM #175 👇

On-chain is constructive. Holders are not selling. The structure looks healthy.
But Bitcoin is falling - and you do not understand why.
The new Adler Premium Education issue breaks down exactly this: when macro has the right to override the entire on-chain picture - and how to distinguish temporary compression from a real structural breakdown.
DXY, yields, VIX - three variables that determine whether structure can express itself in price right now.
More relevant than ever. 👇

Bitcoin bounced toward $77K on Iran headlines.
But Coinbase Premium just hit −0.098 - the lowest level this month.
11 days. Zero positive readings. Zero confirmation from U.S. spot demand.
The price bounced. The capital did not.
☕️ Morning Brief #174 👇

What was happening in the Bitcoin market exactly one year ago?

Given that the yen is once again trading near the 160 per dollar zone, the risk of new FX interventions by Japanese authorities remains high. Since a significant share of Japan’s foreign exchange reserves is held in US Treasuries, large-scale sales of dollar assets could theoretically add pressure to the UST market.

Bitcoin’s bullish impulse broke.
Slow Impulse turned negative for the first time since April. 30Y Treasury yields hit 5.20%.
Momentum is fading exactly as macro pressure is rising.
Without Slow back above zero, every rally is unconfirmed.
Morning Brief #173 👇

US equities pulled back from recent highs as a selloff in Treasuries pushed yields higher, with inflation fears tied to the Middle East conflict weighing on investor sentiment.