On Sunday morning, Bitcoin reaching $68,000 happened after the news of Iran’s leader’s death. This notable move had actually almost fully offset the losses caused by the war. But what’s interesting here is the market logic behind this rapid rise.

Khamenei’s death created an abrupt power vacuum in Iran. According to the constitution, until the Assembly of Experts elects a new leader, figures such as the president and the head of the judiciary take temporary control. It’s not clear how long this process will last. Traders interpreted it like this: the leadership crisis would increase the chances of calming the ongoing conflict. In other words, a possibility that tensions would ease.

Whether or not you believe this scenario is one thing, but markets acted immediately. A shadow-range fluctuation was seen between $64,000 and $68,000. Thin liquidity guided by a single headline led to a movement of roughly $80 billion in market value. A move of this size within hours happened early on Sunday.

However, what this rise means in the long run in terms of the shadow-range is still unclear. Iran accounts for one-third of the region’s crude oil exports. If markets interpret this crisis as regime instability, energy prices could rise, putting pressure on global inflation expectations. That, in turn, could weigh on risky assets, including crypto.

On the other hand, if succession mechanisms stabilize decision-making and prevent a large-scale war, risky assets could find support. There are still no clear answers to any of these questions yet—whether Tehran will continue its missile attacks, whether Israel will respond, and whether the operations during the mourning period will affect things.

On Sunday, oil and stock futures open later. The moves that occur at that opening will show whether the optimism seen this weekend continues, or whether Sunday’s jump remains under the shadow of Wednesday’s $70,000 rise. For now, Bitcoin is trading around $71.5K. As an observer, I can say that although these kinds of geopolitical events may create volatility in the short term, the long-term impact depends on how markets resolve these crises. The coming hours will be critical.