#周末我的交易计划 Is 24 Hours the Decider of Heaven and Earth? US-Iran Negotiations, Three Bottom Lines Unyielding, Global Markets Hold Their Breath!

Just now, the world's attention focused on the entrance of a hotel in Islamabad. Not chasing stars, not watching the excitement. It’s about war and peace. On April 11th, local time, Islamabad, Pakistan, Serena Hotel. The United States and Iran finally sat down at the same negotiation table. This day, more than 40 days have passed since the outbreak of hostilities. Just before the negotiations began, Trump made a statement that made the heart of global capital markets tighten suddenly: “The outcome will be clear within 24 hours.”
24 hours. War or peace? Continue fighting or shake hands and make peace? The global oil market, stock market, and currency market are all waiting for this answer.
1. Sitting down for negotiations is itself not easy
Honestly, it’s not easy for these negotiations to even sit down. Over 40 days of intense conflict, both sides have shown their fire. Iran’s missiles, the US aircraft carriers, clouds hanging over the Middle East. But note, the form of negotiations is still uncertain—possibly face-to-face, or perhaps back-to-back, with messages relayed through the intermediaries. Iran’s stance is very clear: talks are possible, but I haven’t put my knife down. On the eve of negotiations, Iran’s armed forces issued a statement: Given the US and Israel’s repeated breaches of trust, Iran’s armed forces remain on full alert and ready to engage at any time.
Translate: You talk your way, I prepare mine.
2. Core disagreements are mind-boggling
So, what can be achieved by sitting down to talk? The disagreements are so big they make your scalp tingle.
Iran presented 10 ceasefire terms, the US offered 15 peace proposals. The numbers alone reveal problems—one wants 10, the other 15, how many overlapping parts are there? The core game revolves around three points:
First, uranium enrichment rights. Iran says: I want to retain sovereignty over peaceful uranium enrichment. The US says: No way, not even a drop.
Second, the Strait of Hormuz. Iran says: I decide the navigation rules for the strait. The US says: Unconditionally open, no one can block it.
Third, Lebanon. Iran says: Ceasefire must include Lebanon. The US says: Don’t even think about it. Look, this isn’t really negotiation; these are two parallel lines. Iran’s speaker, Kalibaf, directly said: Before negotiations, two conditions must be met—Lebanese ceasefire and the unfreezing of Iran’s frozen assets. The US’s conditions were also directly countered by Iran. To put it plainly, the possibility of reaching a comprehensive agreement in this negotiation is currently low.
3. Markets breathe a sigh of relief, but just a sigh
But for the global capital markets, just the words “sitting down to talk” are enough.
Why? Because over the past 40+ days, the markets have been tossed around enough. Oil prices soared, stocks fluctuated, safe-haven funds flooded into gold and the US dollar. Now, there’s a ceasefire, negotiations are underway, and the market can finally breathe. But note, it’s just a breath. Because negotiations could collapse, and hostilities could reignite. Iran’s missiles could fly again at any moment.
4. A detail worth everyone’s attention
However, there is one detail in this crisis that deserves everyone’s focus. The Cross-Border Payment System—CIPS. By March 2026, CIPS’s daily transaction volume reached 920.5 billion yuan, a 12-month high. On April 2nd, the daily transaction volume surged to 1.22 trillion yuan, setting a new record. What does this number mean?
Simply put: more and more energy trade is settled in RMB. In the past, most oil and natural gas transactions in the Middle East used US dollars. This is the foundation of the dollar’s “petrodollar” hegemony. Now, this foundation is loosening. This US-Iran game, on the surface, is about Middle East war and peace; deep down, it’s about the undercurrents in the global currency landscape.
Conclusion: 24 hours, the world is waiting for an answer. Honestly, this negotiation cannot resolve all issues within 24 hours. Iran’s nuclear rights, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the scope of Lebanon’s ceasefire—these are tough nuts that a single negotiation can’t crack. But within 24 hours, a direction can be seen. For the world, the US-Iran negotiation is a test of war and peace. And the answer to this test will be revealed in the next 24 hours, starting with the first question. The whole world is waiting.
What do you think about this negotiation? Feel free to leave a comment.