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Interesting things are being observed in the Bitcoin options market. According to VanEck's latest report, investors are paying record prices for protection against declines. The put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.84, the highest level since June 2021. Compared to spot trading volume, put premiums have also reached all-time highs, around 4 basis points.
Actually, the market situation is somewhat mixed. While spot prices have started to stabilize around 71.65k, the volatility over the past 30 days has decreased from 80 to 50. Futures funding rates have fallen from 4.1% to 2.7%, indicating that leveraged speculation is cooling off. So, even though prices are gaining stability, traders are acting extremely cautiously and spending significant amounts on insurance against declines.
Such extreme fear signals are interesting because similar trends in history have marked turning points. VanEck's analysis shows that in the past six years, similar options trends have been followed by Bitcoin gaining an average of 13% within 90 days and 133% within 360 days. In other words, this intense fear could paradoxically be a harbinger of price increases. There is also activity on the XRP side; it has dropped to $1.33, but that’s another story.