As low as 4.9 yuan per jin! Pork prices continue to "plummet," losing 225 yuan to raise one pig.

Why Are Pork Prices Continuing to Plummet? How Is the Supply and Demand Imbalance Evolving?

“Recently, bamboo shoots are more expensive than pork,” a consumer in Fuzhou, Fujian, told Red Star Capital Bureau on March 29. She noticed that after the Spring Festival, pork prices have dropped again, with fresh pork front leg meat sold at 9 yuan per jin at a nearby fresh produce supermarket, and online discounts as low as 4.9 yuan per jin. Meanwhile, bamboo shoots are much more expensive, around 11.5 yuan per jin.

Recently, the continuous decline in pork prices has attracted widespread attention. According to monitoring information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the wholesale price of pork has been steadily decreasing since August 2024, falling about 43% from the peak of 13.88 yuan per jin. The price of live pigs also remains low, hitting a new low since June 2018.

The falling pork prices have also triggered chain reactions in the industry. The persistent low prices of live pigs, combined with rising feed costs, have nearly pushed the breeding industry into a situation of “losing money on each pig.”

Pork Prices “Plunge” After the Spring Festival
Since mid-March, dropped to 9 yuan per jin

Not only in Fuzhou, but Red Star Capital Bureau has also observed a “plunge” in pork prices in many places. A consumer from Shenyang said that a local supermarket launched a flash sale, with special discounted pork leg meat as low as 1.99 yuan per jin, with a limit of 3 jin per person.

Image from consumer

On March 29, Red Star Capital Bureau visited several markets and fresh supermarkets in Chengdu and found that since the Spring Festival, pork prices have generally fallen.

A pork stall owner mentioned that during the Spring Festival, pork front leg meat sold for 11 yuan per jin, but since mid-March, it has dropped to 9 yuan per jin; another stall owner said that the price of pork hind leg meat, which was 15 yuan per jin during the Spring Festival, has now fallen to 11 yuan per jin.

Photograph by Qiang Yaxian

Yonghui Supermarket also advertised “high-quality affordable pork belly,” priced at 11.9 yuan per jin; fresh pork soup bones at 7.9 yuan per jin, and fresh pork hind shank at 8.9 yuan per jin. Ms. Yu, a consumer on-site, told Red Star Capital Bureau, “Pork prices are really getting cheaper.”

Photograph by Qiang Yaxian

Monitoring information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that from March 20 to 26, the national average wholesale price of pork was 7.92 yuan per jin, down 1.9% month-on-month, compared to 10.34 yuan per jin in the same period in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%.

Looking at a longer timeline, pork wholesale prices have been steadily declining since August 2024, falling about 43% from the peak of 13.88 yuan per jin.

Image from the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

Behind the decline in wholesale pork prices is the continued low prices of live pigs. Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that in the third week of March 2026, prices of pigs in 30 monitored provinces all fell, with an average price of 11.05 yuan per kilogram, down 28% year-on-year, hitting a new low since June 2018.

Breeders Face the “Losing Money on Every Pig” Dilemma
Industry expects a turnaround in the second half of the year

The falling pig prices have also caused chain reactions in the industry. Red Star Capital Bureau has noted that, with the decline in live pig prices and rising feed costs, the breeding industry is almost in a situation of “losing money on each pig.”

According to data from Galaxy Securities, on March 20, the profit margins for self-breeding and external piglet purchases were -297.68 yuan per head and -141.48 yuan per head, respectively. Zhuochuang Information also shows that in mid-March, the average loss per pig on the breeding side was about 225 yuan.

Major companies are not immune. Take Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), which emphasizes cost control, for example. On March 28, it released its 2025 annual report, with operating revenue of 144.15B yuan, up 4.49% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.49B yuan, down 13.39% year-on-year.

Muyuan previously stated on an investor interaction platform that “the company’s average breeding cost for pigs in January-February 2026 is around 12 yuan per kg.” Comparing this with their pig sales prices, the loss in February was about 0.4 yuan per kilogram. However, the company also mentioned in the annual report that it aims to reduce the average cost for 2026 to below 11.5 yuan per kg.

The overall losses in the breeding industry have further increased. Besides Muyuan, Wens Foodstuffs (300498.SZ) saw its sales revenue in February reach the lowest since 2025, while Tangrenshen (002567.SZ) increased sales volume but saw a 22.74% year-on-year decline in sales revenue.

Bai Wenxi, Vice Chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, told Red Star Capital Bureau that the continued decline in pig prices is influenced by multiple factors: first, high supply from the production side, with a relatively high number of breeding sows, plus significant improvements in production efficiency, keeping market supply high; second, after the Spring Festival, meat consumption enters a seasonal slowdown, with pork consumption typically dropping 15%-20% compared to before the festival.

Regarding future trends, Bai Wenxi said that the government has started to stockpile frozen pork reserves, but since the capacity reduction effects are still emerging, the supply-demand imbalance will be difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. However, as the effects of capacity regulation become more apparent and pork consumption exits the off-season, the supply and demand of the live pig market are expected to improve in the second half of the year.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the government has begun stockpiling frozen pork reserves and guiding local efforts to increase stockpiles, forming a coordinated regulatory mechanism. Relevant departments have also established a collaborative mechanism for capacity regulation and reserve adjustments.

Muyuan also mentioned that from the end of the second quarter of 2026, the capacity reduction effects are expected to gradually become evident, improving the supply-demand relationship, and pig prices are likely to stabilize or slightly rise. With further support from the peak consumption season in the second half, pig prices may experience a gentle increase. Therefore, the overall pig price in 2026 is expected to show a pattern of falling early and rising later.

Red Star News reporter: Qiang Yaxian

Editor: Xiao Ziqi
Reviewer: Guan Lì