#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Iran, Crude Oil, and Gold

From February 28 to April 8, after 40 days, the Iran war temporarily came to an end. From the assassination of Khamenei to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and then to the US-Iran exchanges of fire, every day has witnessed history.
Looking back at the 40 days of war, Iran revealed the true strength of its missile arsenal, exposing America's weaknesses in the Middle East. Trump and the capital behind him profited immensely through his TACO strategy.
TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. The translation is "Trump always backs down at the last moment." In simple terms, it refers to a trading strategy of buying high and selling low during the short-term market volatility triggered by Trump's statements. Its core idea is to bet that the market will experience a V-shaped movement caused by Trump's "big mouth," with "panic decline → emotional recovery."
The war situation changes rapidly, and no one can predict what Trump might do. Today, we won't discuss the war; instead, let's calculate the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the Chinese A-shares, gold, and crude oil. Let's see who paid the price for US support of Iran!
First, here are the charts of crude oil, the Chinese A-shares index, and gold from January 12 to today.
Crude Oil Price:
From the chart, we can see that crude oil prices have remained relatively stable around $60 until the US and Iran went to war. Since then, oil prices surged, reaching a high of $119, nearly doubling. Even after US-Iran negotiations, oil stayed at a high of around $99.
Historically, every Middle East war has pushed oil prices to new highs, and even when the war ends, prices rarely fall back. Therefore, in the future, crude oil prices might stay at this level for a long time. (It's a sad story.)
Shanghai Composite Index:
The A-shares market at the start of 2026 continued the prosperity from 2025, rising steadily, even reaching a 10-year high of 4,197 points on March 3. However, as the Iran war situation worsened, the market sharply declined, dropping 3.6% in a single day on March 23, nearly 10% from the peak—an almost stock market crash. Although it gradually recovered afterward, as of today, it still hovers around 4,000 points and hasn't regained the ground lost since January.
Gold Price:
Gold's trend is similar to that of the A-shares. It reached a historical high of 1,256 points on January 29. Since the start of the US-Iran war, gold has been continuously declining, even dropping 11% in a single day on March 23, creating a "gold pit." As tensions eased, gold prices began to recover gradually.
Some friends might wonder: as a hard currency and a safe-haven asset, shouldn't gold become more expensive as the world becomes more chaotic?
Actually, it's not that simple. In the early stages of war, because oil prices rise, the prices of oil and its derivatives in various countries also increase, leading to inflation expectations. This reduces the likelihood of US rate cuts, strengthens the dollar, and causes currency appreciation, which in turn causes gold prices to fall.
So, as ordinary investors, what lessons can we learn from the fluctuations in crude oil and gold caused by the Iran war?
1. The world situation changes rapidly. As ordinary investors, we should not blindly believe online news or try to predict the war's direction to chase gains or cut losses. Trump's TACO strategy only serves Wall Street capital giants. Trying to predict stock movements based on war developments is almost like gambling.
2. Gold and crude oil, as commodities, are influenced by multiple factors such as war, monetary policy, and US dollar inflation expectations. For ordinary people, it's very difficult to understand the logic behind their price movements. Therefore, unless there's a strong need, it is not recommended to invest in gold and crude oil.
3. As always, a qualified investor should not be blinded by short-term rises or falls. Instead, they should look at the long term, judge economic cycles, analyze industry trends, and aim for precise investments. Stick to a long-term approach, earn an annualized investment return, and only those who laugh last can laugh the best.