I just tracked an interesting trend in the markets — crude oil futures broke through the $110 per barrel mark, and this is causing serious waves across all fronts. West Texas Intermediate surged approximately 17% in a day due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20% of the world's crude oil supplies pass through it daily, so when tensions rise there — the whole world feels it. Asian indices took a serious hit: Nikkei 225 fell more than 6%, and South Korea's Kospi dropped 8%. This is logical — these economies are heavily dependent on energy imports, so rising oil prices immediately reflect on their stocks.

Interestingly, crypto reacted differently. Bitcoin remains stable, although slightly higher than in the original scenario — now around $72.8K. Ether and Solana showed moderate growth, indicating that the market perceives this as an energy shock rather than a global risk-off. I don’t see panic sell-offs.

But not all traders are confident in the stability of this movement. On Hyperliquid, funding rates for perpetual futures on oil have turned negative — a hint that many positions are expecting a pullback despite the rise in spot prices. On Polymarket, the probability of oil reaching $120 by the end of March is estimated at 76%, but that doesn’t mean everyone agrees with this scenario.

The Federal Reserve seems not to be rushing to change rates. Markets give it a 98% chance to keep rates unchanged in March, with only about a 12% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the end of April. Prolonged rising oil prices will increase inflationary pressure, and the Fed will have to consider this.

A separate story — Bhutan. The kingdom quietly sold about 70% of its Bitcoin holdings, which it held in October 2024, reducing its reserves from 13,000 to 3,954 BTC ( worth around $280.6 million ). It appears they also slowed down or completely halted mining on hydroelectric power — no significant inflows in the past year. It will be interesting to see how this affects the overall dynamics.