I recently observed a rather interesting market contradiction. Powell's speech at Harvard was originally intended to ease expectations of interest rate hikes, and the bond market did respond—10-year Treasury yields fell back from their highs to 4.35%, and the 2-year yields also dropped to 3.83%. The market's pricing of the probability of a rate hike in 2026 was also significantly lowered, from 25% down to 5%. It seems that the tension in the bond market has eased somewhat.

But there's a problem here. Stocks and cryptocurrencies both gave back their early gains. Bitcoin's price, although it initially rose, ultimately retreated to around $66,500, remaining flat over the past 24 hours. The Nasdaq fell 0.75%, and the S&P 500 declined 0.4%.

The reason is straightforward—oil prices continue to surge. WTI crude oil jumped 5.3% on Monday, approaching $105 per barrel. This is the highest level since the shocks related to Iran. Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is currently inclined to temporarily ignore these energy shocks and keep interest rates unchanged, but the market clearly isn't so calm.

Interestingly, the decline in bond yields should have benefited risk assets, but the inflation expectations driven by rising oil prices seem to be more dominant. So, you see a phenomenon: the bond market is relieved, but stocks and cryptocurrencies are under pressure. Bitcoin's performance reflects this dilemma—relieved concerns about rate hikes can't offset the worries about rising energy costs.

This situation might persist for a while. As long as oil prices stay high, risk assets will find it difficult to sustain upward momentum. Even if Bitcoin experiences a short-term rebound, macroeconomic pressures could easily suppress it. Recently, monitoring Bitcoin price movements on Gate, you can really feel this oscillating rhythm.