Galaxy Futures: Main asphalt business's decline in negative growth widens, raw material concerns persist

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-10T20:22:36+00:00

The escalation of Middle East conflicts has led to rising raw material costs. Domestic refineries are reducing production due to shortages of heavy oil, leading to a decrease in asphalt supply expectations and pushing prices higher. However, downstream demand is recovering slowly, inventories are high, and short-term support is insufficient, so geopolitical risk impacts should be monitored.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-10 20:22:36

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The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and concerns over raw materials persist. Domestic refineries face high raw material procurement costs, coupled with a shortage of heavy oil, leading to preventive production cuts. Some main refineries have halted or reduced production, further shrinking asphalt output. The March asphalt production forecast has decreased further due to the shutdowns and reductions at new refineries, with supply expectations tightening month-on-month, driving asphalt prices higher. However, the current downstream demand recovery is slow, with the operating rates of modified asphalt and waterproof membrane both below historical averages. Social inventories remain high, and demand-side support for prices is temporarily weak. Under the high-price environment, mid- and downstream market sentiment is cautious. Until geopolitical conflicts ease, cost-side support remains strong, and BU asphalt is expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks. (Galaxy Futures)

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