Galaxy Futures: Rising oil prices break the Fed's bottom-line expectations; precious metal prices come under pressure

In the recent market, crude oil and precious metals have been moving in opposite directions. Concerns that energy-related items may trigger long-term inflation have become the focal point of trading attention in the precious metals sector. The intensity of the US–Iran conflict has been gradually escalating: Iran launched large-scale missile attacks on US-related energy facilities, specifying targets in three Middle Eastern countries. Oil prices have risen significantly, and precious metals need to face downward pressure from liquidity tightening and weaker rate-cut expectations driven by elevated energy prices. At this stage, the available high-frequency fundamental data for platinum and palladium is limited. There is currently a lack of corresponding data to conduct market outlook interpretation for platinum and palladium. Judging from quarterly and annual-level fundamental data, platinum overall shows a tight-but-stable balance; fundamentals provide support. Therefore, platinum should be viewed as slightly bullish in the short term. However, given that precious metals have been experiencing relatively fierce volatility recently, pay attention to position management. Palladium’s overall demand growth is rather limited; entering 2026, it is expected to move into a surplus scenario. Fundamentals do not provide sufficient driving force, and in the future, palladium may benefit more from the macro environment, with its price movements potentially showing correlation with platinum’s price trend. ( Galaxy Futures )