#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

The first major inflation test since the US-Iran war - CPI data preview tonight

The US March CPI data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. As the first comprehensive inflation report reflecting the surge in energy prices after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, the market generally expects the data to rise significantly, potentially triggering a chain reaction in financial markets.

Market expectations:

Currently, the market expects the year-over-year increase in March CPI to jump to 3.3% (previously 2.4%), with core CPI expected to remain around 2.9%. This surge is mainly driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices—since March, geopolitical conflicts have increased supply risks in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil approaching $100 per barrel at times, gaining over 20% for the month. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will reinforce the narrative of “recurrent inflation,” having a profound impact on global asset pricing.

Data impact and key levels:

【Cryptocurrency】

If CPI exceeds expectations, the Fed’s rate cut expectations will cool down again, and concerns about tightening liquidity will suppress risk assets. Bitcoin may face short-term selling pressure; conversely, the rate cut expectations may increase, which is positive for Bitcoin, leading to a rise in its price.

Key support level: 70,400; a break below could target around 69,500.

Key resistance level: 73,200; a break above could target the previous high above 75,000.

【Gold Market】

Similar to Bitcoin, if CPI exceeds expectations, it indicates that high oil prices have a significant impact on US inflation, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts by the Fed, and possibly even raising expectations of rate hikes, which would pressure gold prices; conversely, gold would benefit and prices would rise.

Key support level: 4,550

Key resistance level: 4,900

【Stock Market】

High inflation expectations generally bearish for growth stocks, as their valuations depend on discounted future cash flows. An upward revision of interest rate expectations will compress valuation space. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index may face correction pressure.

Meanwhile, cyclical sectors such as energy and materials may benefit from rising commodity prices; defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples could also attract funds, leading to market rotation.

Key support level: Can the S&P 500 hold the critical support at 4,900 points, and will the VIX fear index break through the 20 mark?

Friendly reminder: The impact of high oil prices caused by the US-Iran war on US inflation will soon be revealed. Tonight will likely be another “no rise, no fall” market turning point. It is advisable to reduce positions in advance to avoid risks, rather than betting on data or market direction. Prepare plans ahead of time, and operate according to key levels once the data is released.