Bank of America raises 2026 oil price forecast target

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-11 21:38:52

Abstract generation in progress

Investing.com - Bank of America has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil in 2026, warning that the Iran conflict has “eliminated” the global energy surplus and created a more fragile outlook for supply and prices.

Learn more about analyst-driven data on InvestingPro

Bank of America analyst Francisco Blanch stated in a client report that the baseline “regime change” scenario for Iran remains the most likely, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that the “Epic Firestorm” operation could end “soon.”

If so, the bank expects “most energy flows to return to normal by April.”

However, Bank of America also warned that Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment to a “hardline” stance has opened the door, prompting the bank to introduce three new variants, namely conflict extending into the second, third, or even fourth quarter of 2026.

These paths would create very different outcomes for global supply and crude oil prices.

Due to the Strait of Hormuz remaining largely closed and energy assets being targeted, Bank of America states that “Hardline Path 1 (continued disruption of energy flows until Q2 2026)” now has as much chance as a quick resolution.

The bank currently expects a deficit of 2.2 million barrels per day in Q1, with the market balancing in Q2.

Overall, Bank of America forecasts a deficit of 1.1 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026, after which supply is expected to return to normal.

Therefore, Bank of America has raised its 2026 Brent crude oil forecast to $77.50 per barrel, with an average of $80 in Q2, followed by a decline in prices in the second half, dropping to $65 in 2027 as the pre-war surplus returns. WTI is expected to trade $5 lower than Brent crude.

The bank added that in more severe scenarios, the average price of Brent crude could reach $100, and if disruptions continue until the end of 2026, it could even rise to $130.

This article was translated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. For more information, please see our Terms of Use.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.