2026 Gold Price Trend Forecast: The Logic of the Gold Bull Market from a Structural Perspective

The gold market over the past two years has become a focal point that global investors must pay attention to. The core of the gold price trend forecast is that the driving force behind the bull market is never simply inflation or short-term panic, but one or more long-term structural factors capable of shaking the credibility of mainstream fiat currencies. When the market expects these core factors to be resolved, the monetary premium of gold will diminish. Therefore, understanding the fundamental reasons behind gold price changes is key to predicting price movements and market volatility.

Why Is Gold Reaching Record Highs? Five Major Drivers and Their Connection to Price Forecasts

According to data from Reuters and Bloomberg, the gold price is projected to increase by over 30% in 2024-2025, reaching the highest levels in nearly 30 years, surpassing the 31% in 2007 and 29% in 2010. By 2026, gold prices have continued rising from around $5,000 per ounce at the start of the year, hitting multiple new highs by mid-February, breaking through the critical level of $5,150 per ounce. This bull market has gained over 150% since early 2024, from just above $2,000 to surpassing $5,000 in 2026.

What is the logic behind this surge? The five main drivers of gold price forecasts are:

Persistent Impact of Trade Protectionism and Tariff Policies — Continuous tariff policies increase market uncertainty and significantly boost risk aversion, directly triggering the 2025 gold price rally. Historical experience (such as the US-China trade war in 2018) shows that during periods of policy uncertainty, gold prices often short-term surge by 5–10%. In 2026, the lingering effects of tariffs and ongoing regional trade frictions remain key variables supporting higher gold prices.

Gradual Decline in Confidence in the US Dollar — When confidence in the dollar wanes, gold, as a dollar-denominated asset, benefits and attracts more capital inflows. In 2025-2026, expanding US fiscal deficits, frequent debt ceiling debates, and de-dollarization trends lead to continued shifts of funds from dollar assets to hard assets. This is not a short-term phenomenon but a long-term structural change.

Expectations and Reality of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts — Fed rate cuts weaken the dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus increasing its attractiveness. If the economy weakens, rate cuts may accelerate. Historically, each rate-cutting cycle has seen significant gold price increases (e.g., 2008–2011, 2020–2022). In 2026, expected 1–2 rate cuts provide strong support for gold. Notably, some rate cut announcements have led to gold price declines, often because markets have already priced in expectations or due to hawkish Fed speeches. Monitoring the CME FedWatch tool for rate cut probabilities is an effective way to gauge short-term gold trends—rising probabilities tend to push prices higher, while downward revisions may cause corrections.

Persistent Geopolitical Risks — Ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, escalating Middle East tensions, and regional instability keep safe-haven demand high. Geopolitical events often cause short-term spikes in gold prices. In 2025–2026, this factor remains significant, amplified by fragile global supply chains.

Continued Central Bank Gold Purchases — According to the World Gold Council (WGC), in 2025, global central banks net purchased over 1,200 tons of gold, marking the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons. The WGC survey indicates that most central banks (76%) expect their gold holdings to increase “moderately or significantly” over the next five years, with many also expecting a decline in dollar reserves. This is a structural shift, not just short-term.

Central Bank Gold Buying: Seemingly a Hedge, but Actually a Structural Challenge to the Dollar System

The deeper significance of central bank gold purchases goes beyond the surface-level “hedge” narrative. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2022, central banks have continuously bought gold without pause. What does this represent? It is essentially a long-term questioning of the US dollar system.

In addition to these five main drivers, other structural changes in the global economy are also pushing gold prices higher: global debt has reached $307 trillion (IMF data), high debt levels limit countries’ interest rate policy flexibility, and monetary easing tends to lower real interest rates, indirectly boosting gold’s appeal. Moreover, stock markets are at historic highs with limited leadership, increasing portfolio concentration risks, prompting many investors to allocate more to gold for stability. Media and social media coverage and sentiment also drive short-term capital inflows into gold markets. Investors’ preference for flexible trading methods has increased interest in derivatives like XAU/USD, enhancing liquidity and responsiveness but also making gold prices more reactive to macro signals.

2026 Price Outlook from Major Institutions: Optimism with Risks

As 2026 draws to a close, after multiple record highs, analysts generally remain optimistic about the remaining months of 2026. Summarizing forecasts from major banks and institutions:

Industry Consensus — The average price in 2026 is projected between $5,200 and $5,600 per ounce, with year-end targets typically around $5,400 to $5,800. More optimistic forecasts suggest $6,000 to $6,500. Some institutions (like Société Générale and independent strategists) believe geopolitical risks or a sharp dollar decline could push prices above $6,500.

Major Bank Predictions — Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, citing ongoing central bank buying and declining real yields. JPMorgan expects around $5,550 in Q4, driven by ETF inflows and safe-haven demand. Citibank forecasts an average of $5,800 in H2, with risks of rising to $6,200 amid recession or high inflation scenarios. UBS is more conservative, with a target of $5,300, but acknowledges that faster rate cuts could lead to higher prices. The WGC and LBMA participants estimate an average around $5,450.

Deeper Insight — While the bull market appears driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, the underlying driver is the fracture in the global credit system, with gold serving as a long-term hedge against systemic risks. This trend will not suddenly disappear in 2026, as inflation stickiness, debt pressures, and geopolitical tensions persist. Gold’s bottom tends to rise, with limited downside in a bull market. However, gold prices are never linear; in 2025, expectations of Fed policy adjustments caused a 10–15% correction. If real rates rebound or crises ease in 2026, volatility will likely continue. The key is whether you have a systematic approach to monitor market signals rather than follow news blindly.

Retail Investors: Timing and Strategies Based on Price Trends

Understanding the logic behind this gold rally, many investors ask: Is it too late to enter now? Based on professional forecasts, the current rally is not over, and both medium-long-term and short-term opportunities remain. However, blindly chasing the market often results in buying high and selling low.

Depending on individual circumstances, different strategies apply:

Experienced short-term traders will find that volatile markets create excellent opportunities for quick trades. Good liquidity and clear short-term directions make it easier to judge price swings, especially during sharp rises or falls. However, new investors aiming to capitalize on recent volatility should start small and avoid over-leveraging. Using economic calendars to track US economic data can help inform trading decisions.

Long-term physical gold investors should be prepared for significant fluctuations. While the long-term trend is upward, enduring the volatility requires mental readiness. Remember, gold’s average annual volatility is 19.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%. Gold’s cycle is long; buying as a store of value over 10+ years can preserve wealth, but prices may double or halve within that period. Transaction costs for physical gold are relatively high, typically 5–20%.

Portfolio allocation with gold is feasible, but don’t forget that gold’s volatility is higher than stocks. Putting all your assets into gold is not wise; diversification remains prudent. For maximizing returns, some investors hold long-term positions while timing short-term trades during periods of increased volatility, especially around US economic data releases. This approach requires experience and risk management skills.

For Taiwanese investors, foreign currency-denominated gold also involves USD/TWD exchange rate fluctuations, which can impact returns. Regardless of strategy, systematic monitoring based on price forecasts is always better than blindly following news.