AI slaughtering white-collar workers, is Bitcoin the savior?

A panic originating from the “future” is sweeping across global capital markets. A previously obscure scenario report, because it hit the market’s most sensitive nerve with precision, triggered a sell-off storm over the past weekend comparable to a real crisis.

When co-author Alap Shah publicly stated this week that “market reactions far exceeded expectations,” the AI-driven financial turbulence has quietly split into two very different paths: one is a flood of software stocks and white-collar economy, the other is a new narrative around chip stocks and Bitcoin.

1. A “Warning Letter” from 2028: Ghost GDP and Unemployment Tsunami

● The source of this storm is a scenario report titled “Global Intelligent Crisis 2028.” It’s not dry data prediction but a “warning letter” written from the perspective of June 2028. The report depicts an counterintuitive terrifying future: AI has not disappointed but has exceeded expectations.

● In this hypothetical 2028, AI agents massively replace white-collar jobs, corporate profits soar, but human consumers’ purchasing power collapses due to unemployment waves.

○ A concept called “Ghost GDP” emerges—national accounts show dazzling output created by machines, but this wealth remains like ghosts, not flowing into real economic consumption.

○ The report warns that this “high productivity but money not circulating” vicious cycle will push unemployment to 10.2%, ultimately causing the S&P 500 to plummet 38% from its high.

● This is not alarmism but a tightly coupled negative feedback loop: stronger AI → fewer corporate hires → more white-collar layoffs → weaker overall consumer demand → economy increasingly dependent on AI → further layoffs. As Shah states, this is a “malignant cycle” with no natural brake.

2. Market Voting with Their Feet: No One Is Safe from IBM to Visa

● Although the report clearly states “the following is a scenario hypothesis,” markets chose to “fire first, ask questions later.” On Monday, February 23, U.S. stocks opened in panic.

● The blue giant IBM became the target, with its stock plunging 13 in a single day—the largest one-day drop in 25 years. The trigger was not only the report but also AI company Anthropic’s release of Claude Code—an upgrade tool for COBOL software still used by many governments and large banks, heavily reliant on IBM systems. This means even the oldest code fortresses are being breached by AI.

● Panic spread rapidly.

○ Software ETF (IGV) sharply declined, with a total drop of about 35% from its September high last year.

○ Even payment giants were not spared: Visa down 4.5%, MasterCard down 5.77%, American Express down over 7%.

● The Citrini report’s logic points directly to its core business model—AI agents can save users money by eliminating transaction fees, disrupting the entire payments industry. Companies like American Express, KKR, Blackstone, which rely on intermediaries and discretionary spending, all suffered heavy hits.

3. Proposal of an “AI Tax”: Building a Firewall Against Unemployment?

Faced with this potential societal rift triggered by technological progress, Alap Shah proposed a controversial remedy—imposing an “AI tax.”

● In an interview with Bloomberg, the chief investment officer called for the government to consider taxing the incremental or unexpected gains brought by AI to offset the impact of labor displacement and protect the most vulnerable consumer demand.

○ His core concern is that replacing white-collar workers will create a frightening negative feedback loop: companies cut jobs to boost profit margins, reinvest the savings into more advanced AI, which leads to further layoffs. Ultimately, when the wave of unemployment erodes consumer spending, the entire “consumer economy” risks collapsing.

● Shah warns that within 18 months, AI could reduce white-collar employment in the U.S. by 5%, and due to its more “vibrant” labor market (easier to fire), the U.S. will be the most impacted front line. He does not aim to halt technological progress but seeks to install a social buffer to prevent “Ghost GDP” from becoming reality.

4. Bitcoin’s “Fortune”: Will AI Agents Choose Digital Gold?

As humans worry about their jobs, a more intriguing question arises: if the future economy is dominated by AI agents, what money will they use? How will they store value?

● Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese-listed Metaplanet, offers a disruptive answer: Bitcoin. He believes that as AI-driven productivity surges, the global economy is moving toward an era of “machine-to-machine trading.” AI agents making financial decisions will not have brand preferences like humans nor rely on traditional bank accounts or high-friction credit card networks.

● “AI agents will prioritize more efficient, lower-friction digital assets,” Gerovich points out. Compared to traditional payment networks with 2-3% fees, low-cost blockchain settlements are more attractive.

● More importantly, when AI needs to store value, they won’t deposit money into money market funds like humans but will choose assets with anti-inflation properties, verifiable scarcity, and decentralized security—Bitcoin fits this storage logic perfectly.

● In a sense, if the assumptions of the Citrini report are true, large-scale unemployment and fiat currency depreciation expectations could turn AI agents into marginal buyers of Bitcoin, pushing it to become a core store of value in the “machine economy.”

5. The Business of Fear: Who Are the Real Winners and Losers?

This “AI doomsday narrative” has frightened markets but also acts as a mirror, clearly delineating winners and losers.

● The losers are obvious: any business relying on “headcount” charges. SaaS companies are hit first, as AI is pushing the value of coding toward zero. Wealth management, insurance, intermediary services—white-collar intensive industries—are under fire. Since the beginning of the year, US software stocks have fallen 24%, and the sell-off is far from over.

● Winners are concentrated in Asia. Shah explicitly reveals his investment strategy: “We typically short companies that will be disrupted by AI. On the other hand, we hold large positions in semiconductor stocks, as we believe these companies will benefit.” Global funds are proving this with action: TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, and other Asian chip giants’ stocks are soaring, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has had its strongest start ever relative to US stocks.

● Renowned “black swan” author Nassim Taleb warns that software companies may go bankrupt, while “The Big Short” protagonist Michael Burry reposted the report, implying the market has not priced in the worst-case scenario. But there are also cautious voices: economist Claudia Sam points out that the report underestimates policymakers’ strong intervention capacity when facing labor market crises.

● Tech investor Jason Calacanis counters with real data: currently, running a single AI agent costs about $300 per day and can only replace 10-20% of human jobs, far from the critical point of full automation.

A “thought experiment” triggering hundreds of billions in sell-offs itself shows how fragile market valuations and positions have become. Shah’s warning, Gerovich’s visions, and investor panic all point to an unavoidable future: AI is rewriting the underlying code of the economy.

In this process, humans need safety valves like the “AI tax” and new paradigms like Bitcoin. The only certainty is that the turbulence has just begun.