From the Spring Festival Gala's top spot to downward pressure on stock prices: the robotics sector faces a "gap in expectations" chill

On the stage of the Year of the Horse Spring Festival Gala, humanoid robots made a stunning debut with “Cyber True Kung Fu.” The precise cluster collaboration of Yushu Technology and the agile performance of Matsunobu Power showcased China’s hardcore strength in the robotics industry chain to the world. However, this industry enthusiasm did not translate to the capital markets—on February 24, A-share robotics concept stocks generally suffered heavy declines, with Wuzhou New Spring (603667.SH) closing down 6.9%, and core component companies like Lede Harmonics (688017.SH), Wanxiang Qianchao (000559.SZ), and Zhaowei Electromechanical (003021.SZ) leading the decline, contrasting sharply with the pre-holiday surge of Hong Kong-listed robotics concept stocks.

Market analysis shows that as the annual report filing period approaches, corporate performance certainty has become a key concern for investors. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Optimus third-generation humanoid robot release is expected to be delayed until Q1 2026, failing to meet market optimistic expectations, and the combined effect of these factors has put pressure on sector valuations. Behind this “high opening, low closing” trend reflects a critical turning point for the humanoid robot industry—from “concept hype” to “performance realization.”

High Opening, Low Closing: Gala Hype Can’t Mask Performance Anxiety

Four robotics companies showcased their hardcore strength at the Gala. Among them, the listed Yushu Technology demonstrated precise cluster collaboration of robots, and Matsunobu Power’s bipedal robots displayed agility, undoubtedly showcasing China’s deep hardware capabilities in the robotics supply chain to the world. This phenomenal performance triggered a rally in Hong Kong-listed robotics stocks such as Yuzhuang (02432.HK), Sutteng Juchuang (02498.HK), and UBTECH (09880.HK).

Many investors expected this high-profile “tech showcase” to boost sector confidence, and combined with the rally of Hong Kong-listed robotics stocks, there was hope to drive the A-share robotics sector higher after the holiday.

However, the actual market movement defied expectations. On February 24, the humanoid robot concept sector opened high but declined throughout the day, with Wuzhou New Spring experiencing a maximum intraday drop of over 9%, closing down 6.9%. Core component stocks like Lede Harmonics, Wanxiang Qianchao, and Zhaowei Electromechanical generally declined.

Private equity investors and industry analysts interviewed by reporters believe that the main reasons for the sector’s decline are twofold: first, the concept of robotics had already been overheated before the holiday, driven by early speculation on its appearance at the Gala; second, after more than a year of expectations, valuations in the robotics sector are at historic highs, and the market is now more focused on order fulfillment and performance certainty.

Since 2025, the humanoid robot sector has experienced several rounds of valuation speculation based on technological breakthroughs and Tesla’s potential order expectations, with most core concept stocks trading at historic highs. As the 2025 annual report season approaches, the market’s scrutiny of companies’ actual profitability has become increasingly stringent.

Leading the decline, Wuzhou New Spring and Lede Harmonics are representatives of domestic precision manufacturing and core component industries. Despite their deep integration into the humanoid robot industry chain, their current revenue from humanoid robots remains limited, mainly contributing to traditional industrial manufacturing. Investors are increasingly worried whether their core businesses can support the current high valuations, while scaling up new robot businesses still requires time.

Take Wuzhou New Spring as an example: its main business includes bearings, precision mechanical parts, automotive safety systems, and thermal management components, transitioning from traditional industrial parts to new energy vehicle parts, wind power rollers, and screw products. In the first three quarters of 2025, Wuzhou New Spring achieved revenue of 2.661 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.48 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.25%. The company’s bearings business remains stable, but its performance in the robotics field has yet to show substantial results.

In its fundraising prospectus, Wuzhou New Spring notes that although the humanoid robot industry is growing rapidly, the current technology routes, commercialization models, and application scenarios are not yet fully mature. Large-scale industrialization is not yet widespread, and the process remains uncertain. To further develop humanoid robots, the company is planning a private placement to raise 1 billion yuan for humanoid robot and intelligent vehicle high-end screw and bearing projects. The company states that the products from this fundraising are already connected with clients including ByteDance, Xpeng, and other main humanoid robot manufacturers, as well as parts suppliers like Xin Jianchuandong.

“A key concern for the market is not the long-term prospects of the robotics industry, but the mismatch between short-term performance and high expectations,” said a private equity fund manager. “During the annual report window, any performance below expectations or gross margin levels could trigger capital outflows. This rational reassessment, from industry vision to financial reality, is the internal logic behind the current sector correction.”

Mass production and commercialization: from order fulfillment to scene expansion reshaping valuation logic

If performance certainty is the short-term anxiety in the humanoid robot supply chain, then the expected release of Tesla’s third-generation Optimus humanoid robot is the strongest catalyst for the industry’s medium- to long-term trajectory. Morgan Stanley’s latest report indicates that Tesla has signaled a launch of the third-generation Optimus in Q1 2026, with key upgrades focusing on hand dexterity and body structure.

This expectation directly impacts China’s supply chain. As a global manufacturing hub, Chinese component suppliers view Optimus’s progress as a barometer for the industry. As early as December 2025, positive discussions about potential Tesla orders drove a sector rally. Recent surveys show that core suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic are actively preparing capacity for Tesla’s upcoming mass production. This shift from “anticipated support” to “actual inventory buildup” signals a new phase in industry development.

“From last year’s expectations based on technological breakthroughs, product penetration, and industry acceleration, to this year’s need to realize demand, the valuation system for humanoid robots is changing. ‘Storytelling’ can no longer inflate concept stock valuations; the market is shifting to ‘performance and order focus,’” said an industry analyst.

For capital markets, the realization of Tesla orders will no longer be just speculative future visions but could translate into traceable, verifiable revenue growth in company financials. When a company begins preparing production lines for a global leader’s mass production plan, its performance certainty is most convincingly supported.

Morgan Stanley’s recent report predicts, under a baseline scenario with a 70% probability, that if the third-generation Optimus achieves upgrades in key components like dexterous hands and maintains its planned production timeline, the Chinese humanoid robot industry could see a 5%-10% rise, with stocks involved in new dexterous hand technology performing especially well. Conversely, if the third-generation Optimus shows no significant progress over the second and delays mass production or lowers targets, the industry could face a 10%-20% correction.

However, order fulfillment is just the starting point; expanding application scenarios is crucial for the long-term sustainability of the humanoid robot industry. Orders and scenes are like two wheels driving industry development—interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Without orders, scenes are empty; without scene implementation, orders cannot be sustained. Currently, with supportive policies from central and local governments, and rapid iteration of core components and embodied intelligence large models, humanoid robot application scenarios are gradually unfolding from simple to complex.

Regarding application scenarios, the analyst noted that the Gala performance, while impressive, is mainly a brand showcase and a technical training ground. The real industry breakthrough depends on whether large models can enable robots to bridge from controlled performances to home services and factory automation, creating sustainable economic benefits. This requires robots not only to have agile bodies but also intelligent “brains.”

Dongguan Securities’ research report analyzes the scene implementation path: Industrial scenes, due to their simplicity and repetitive nature, require standardized motion control, making them the first to achieve large-scale deployment. Tasks like loading and unloading on factory assembly lines are waiting for “humanoid” labor. Commercial scenes demand robots with human interaction and guidance capabilities, requiring higher semantic understanding and real-time response from AI large models. Extreme scenarios, such as disaster rescue, require robots to analyze complex environments and make near-human judgments, testing perception and decision-making systems. The most challenging home service scenes involve unstandardized environments, demanding high generalization from AI models and flexible, safe hardware. Due to current technical bottlenecks—such as limited environment perception accuracy, decision algorithms’ generalization, and mechanical flexibility—home service robots still face difficulties handling complex, unpredictable household tasks. However, with ongoing improvements in large model capabilities and hardware upgrades, interaction and task execution abilities of humanoid robots will continue to advance, gradually opening up niche home service applications.

It is foreseeable that in 2026, the main theme of the humanoid robot sector will focus on “mass production and commercialization.” From last year’s hype based on technological breakthroughs to this year’s demand validation, the sector’s valuation logic is shifting. The realization of Tesla orders will provide the first growth driver for industry companies, while the gradual deployment of diverse application scenarios will determine the industry’s ceiling and sustainability. Only when clear mass production expectations are converted into tangible orders and repeatedly validated across industrial, commercial, and household scenes can this once-fervently chased sector shed its concept hype label and enter a healthy valuation expansion driven by performance and value investing.

(Article source: Yicai)