Is ETH falling below 1900 truly an opportunity? Why do I still remain optimistic about Ethereum in 2026?

Author: Mr. Bai

As of February 2026, the crypto market seems to have entered a winter. ETH has fallen below 1900, marking one of its worst starts in history, down over 60% from the 2025 high.

Market sentiment is extremely panicked, even insiders selling coins has added to the pressure.

1. Technical Analysis

This is also something I’ve repeatedly emphasized in the community. On the candlestick chart, we experienced a sharp drop, sideways consolidation, and the recent decline perfectly matches the expected final dip!

All I can do is advise everyone to hold steady, as we’ve also entered a perfect dollar-cost averaging zone. Refer to the 2022 trend—this is the last dip!

2. Macro Perspective

Ethereum’s daily active addresses in February remain between 550,000 and over 700,000 (mainnet). In January-February, it approached or broke through the 1 million+ new high. The 7-day and 30-day moving averages are still rising, indicating increasing real user activity and DApp engagement.

On February 7, daily trading volume hit a record high of 2.896 million, and on February 22, it remained above 1.7 million. Overall, early 2026 shows a significant rebound compared to the same period in 2025, driven mainly by stablecoins and Layer 2 activity.

The total supply of on-chain stablecoins on ETH is about 158-183 billion USD (over 50% of the global total), continuously climbing and reaching new highs in 2025-2026, indicating ongoing growth of stablecoins!

Exchange reserves of ETH continue to decline, with total exchange-held ETH dropping to 16.2 million (the lowest since 2016), showing persistent net outflows at the start of 2026.

Therefore, combined with staking and locking, effective circulating supply has significantly tightened (about 45%+ of ETH is illiquid). Although ETH prices face short-term pressure, the network fundamentals as of February 2026 are on the verge of an explosion.

3. Institutions Are Buying, Not Selling

Retail investors are panicking, but institutions are positioning themselves. ETF capital inflows are resuming, and corporate treasuries are acquiring ETH at low prices. Traditional financial institutions continue to develop tokenized products on Ethereum.

In January, net outflows totaled $253 million, but on February 17, there was a single-day net inflow of $48.63 million (BlackRock’s ETHA led with +$22.89 million), and on February 13, a positive flow of +$10.26 million. Despite recent volatility, multiple positive inflows and zero outflows have occurred, with total AUM still exceeding $11.5 billion, indicating institutions are beginning to re-enter around the $1900 level.

4. Focus of the 2026 Roadmap

Upgrade directions include:

• Increasing Gas limit

• Enhancing Layer 2 interoperability

• Expanding zero-knowledge infrastructure

• Account abstraction

• Quantum resistance

Strengthening the Layer 1: post-quantum cryptography, FOCIL censorship resistance, network resilience testing. Vitalik also emphasizes, “It’s no longer UX vs. security, but improving security through better UX.”

So, if macro stability and capital inflows continue, ETH doesn’t need hype; it just needs to be re-priced.

This is not blind optimism. I firmly believe that winter often marks the beginning of the biggest rebound.