Is It Time To Reassess ONEOK (OKE) After Its Mixed Share Price Performance

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 24, 2026 at 2:09 PM GMT+9 6 min read

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If you are wondering whether ONEOK at around US$87.33 is offering fair value or a potential mispricing, you are not alone. Many investors are asking the same question right now.

The stock has returned 1.4% over the last week, 12.0% over the last month, 17.5% year to date and 50.4% over three years, while the one year return of a 6.0% decline adds an extra layer of risk and reward questions for long term holders.

Recent news coverage has focused on ONEOK as a major US energy infrastructure operator, with attention on how its pipeline and midstream footprint positions it within the broader energy sector. Investors are watching how these business fundamentals relate to the mixed share price record across different time frames.

Our valuation checks give ONEOK a score of 4 out of 6, which means it screens as undervalued on four of our six tests. Next we will walk through the key valuation approaches behind that score and finish with a more rounded way to think about what the stock is really worth.

Find out why ONEOK’s -6.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: ONEOK Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes a company’s expected future cash flows and then discounts them back to today using a required rate of return. The goal is to estimate what those future cash flows are worth in today’s dollars.

For ONEOK, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $2.87b. Analysts and internal estimates project free cash flow reaching $5.12b by 2030, with interim projections such as $3.74b in 2026 and $4.39b in 2027. Beyond the explicit analyst horizon, Simply Wall St extrapolates additional years of free cash flow using its own assumptions.

Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of $188.07 per share. Compared with the recent share price around $87.33, the DCF output suggests ONEOK trades at a 53.6% discount to this estimate, which screens as materially undervalued on this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ONEOK is undervalued by 53.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 56 more high quality undervalued stocks.

OKE Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ONEOK.

Approach 2: ONEOK Price vs Earnings

P/E is often the go to metric for profitable companies because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business is already generating. Investors generally look for a P/E that reflects both how fast earnings might grow and how risky those earnings are, with higher growth or lower perceived risk often lining up with higher P/E levels, and the reverse also holding true.

Story Continues  

For ONEOK, the current P/E is 16.46x. That sits above the Oil and Gas industry average of 14.15x and slightly below the peer group average of 17.07x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 22.22x, which is the P/E level it would expect for ONEOK after considering factors such as earnings growth estimates, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks.

This Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than a simple industry or peer comparison, because it adjusts for the quality and risk profile of ONEOK rather than assuming all companies in the group deserve similar multiples. With the Fair Ratio at 22.22x and the current P/E at 16.46x, this framework points to ONEOK trading below that customised fair value range.

Result: UNDERVALUED

NYSE:OKE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 22 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ONEOK Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce Narratives, which are simple stories you create about ONEOK that connect your view of its future revenues, earnings and margins to a forecast and a fair value. All of this is done within an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically when new results or news arrive, and lets you compare that Fair Value to today’s Price to decide if ONEOK looks attractive to you, whether you lean closer to the more optimistic fair value around US$118.38 or the cautious view around US$72.

For ONEOK however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ONEOK Narratives:

🐂 ONEOK Bull Case

Fair value in this optimistic Narrative: US$118.38 per share

Implied discount to this fair value versus the last close around US$87.33: about 26.3%

Assumed annual revenue growth: 16.8%

Backers of this view point to accelerated infrastructure buildout and deeper than expected benefits from integrating Magellan, EnLink and Medallion. Together these factors support higher throughput, wider segment margins and stronger free cash flow.

They also view ONEOK’s footprint as well positioned for demand from U.S. LNG exports and petrochemical buyers. Integrated assets in key shale basins offer a cost and access edge that could support revenue and earnings growth into the next decade.

In this Narrative, higher free cash flow after 2026 is expected to give management room for faster deleveraging and richer shareholder returns. It also acknowledges risks related to long term fossil fuel demand, regional concentration, acquisition integration and ESG driven constraints.

🐻 ONEOK Bear Case

Fair value in this more cautious Narrative: about US$87.30 per share

Implied valuation gap versus the last close around US$87.33: roughly in line with this fair value mark

Assumed annual revenue growth: 3.2%

This view still recognises the role of expanding infrastructure, acquisitions and export exposure in supporting revenue and margins. However it pairs that with a tempered outlook on how much growth is already reflected in the current P/E and analyst targets.

Analysts behind this Narrative highlight constraints from commodity price volatility, higher leverage after recent deals and ongoing regulatory and ESG headwinds that could affect new project timing and long term asset utilisation.

The fair value around US$87.30 also reflects the recent reset in future P/E assumptions and acknowledges that while free cash flow and leverage trends have improved, future execution, contract quality and the pace of energy transition remain key swing factors.

Do you think there’s more to the story for ONEOK? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:OKE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include OKE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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